Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
26 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (26 Feb 23:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 54 km/h 0.3 m 322 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 1.6 m 472 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

86 km/h

Up to 7 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia6,542 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 24 Feb 2020 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 5 25 Feb 2020 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Feb 2020 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 26 Feb 2020 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 26 Feb 2020 12:00 86 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia268 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia478,598
+
Indonesia1,854 
Papua New Guinea432,734 
Australia44,010 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Australia2,050,800
+
Indonesia559,358 
Papua New Guinea1,248,636 
Timor-Leste111,891 
Australia130,915 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 123 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 255 160 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 209 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 4 24 Feb 2020 12:00 227 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 5 25 Feb 2020 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 6 25 Feb 2020 12:00 159 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 7 26 Feb 2020 00:00 155 8 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 8 26 Feb 2020 12:00 386 480 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 26 Feb 2020 23:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 Feb 2020 23:45 Karumba Australia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 19:15 Sarire Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 19:15 Tamarike Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 19:15 Anansai Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 19:15 Wendu Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 19:15 Matara Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 19:15 Urum Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 19:15 Merauke Indonesia  0.3
26 Feb 2020 19:15 Daub Indonesia  0.3
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Bing Bong Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 19:00 Kobiem Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 19:00 Okaba Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 19:00 Moegaigare Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 19:00 Alakoe Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 19:00 Alatepi Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 21:15 Jara Papua New Guinea  0.2
26 Feb 2020 21:15 Mari Papua New Guinea  0.2
26 Feb 2020 21:45 Thundulda Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 22:15 Eyre Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Mapoon Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Caburinga Village Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Hammond I Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Cowel Creek Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Seisia Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Bamaga Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 19:45 Komoran Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Port Kennedy Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 22:45 Cape York Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Selemit Indonesia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 The Palms Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Larrakeyah Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Fannie Bay Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Parap Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Darwin Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Nightcliff Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Ludmilla Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Bagot Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Leanyer Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 16:15 Berrimah Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Yirrkala Australia  0.2
26 Feb 2020 18:00 Soeam Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Gove Australia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Tor Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Wan Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Konerau Indonesia  0.2
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.1
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.1
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Alyangula Australia  0.1
27 Feb 2020 00:00 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 23:15 Boigu Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 23:15 Bugi Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 23:15 Dauan Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 23:30 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 23:30 Saibai Australia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 22:15 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 22:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 22:00 Per Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 22:00 Agats Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 22:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Amagoa Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Segero Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Tugara Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Dibiri Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Orapoi Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Oropai Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Gesco Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Tirere Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Dameramuda Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Bina No 1 Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 17:00 Maipani Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 20:15 Birab Indonesia  0.1
26 Feb 2020 20:45 Avioua Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 20:45 Veraibari Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 20:45 Mirimairau Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 20:45 Uramu I Papua New Guinea  0.1
26 Feb 2020 20:45 Kaivu Papua New Guinea  0.1