Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
25 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (25 Feb 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 50 km/h 0.2 m 159 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 1.6 m 472 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia1,226 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 86 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 4 24 Feb 2020 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 5 25 Feb 2020 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 25 Feb 2020 12:00 79 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 25 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPapua New Guinea, Australia1,298
+
Papua New Guinea1,065 
Australia233 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, Indonesia, Australia271,052
+
Indonesia4,281 
Papua New Guinea242,001 
Australia24,770 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Australia1,633,384
+
Indonesia634,225 
Papua New Guinea979,752 
Timor-Leste6,602 
Australia12,805 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 123 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 255 160 thousand
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 3 24 Feb 2020 00:00 209 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 4 24 Feb 2020 12:00 227 Few people
- - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 5 25 Feb 2020 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 6 25 Feb 2020 12:00 344 270 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Bing Bong, Australia. This height is estimated for 25 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 25 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Bing Bong Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Thundulda Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Eyre Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 The Palms Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Larrakeyah Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Fannie Bay Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Parap Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Darwin Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Nightcliff Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Ludmilla Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Bagot Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Leanyer Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 15:15 Berrimah Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 19:30 Soeam Indonesia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 19:15 Thangoo Australia  0.2
25 Feb 2020 16:45 Pallarenda Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:45 Belgian Gardens Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:45 Townsville Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:45 Oonoonba Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:45 Cluden Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:45 Oolbun Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 21:45 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 22:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 22:00 Per Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 22:00 Agats Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 22:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 19:00 Mutarnee Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 19:00 Moongobulla Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 19:00 Rollingstone Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 19:00 Kinduro Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 19:15 Halifax Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 19:15 Cassady Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:45 Lower Tully Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:45 South Mission Beach Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Mirimairau Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Uramu I Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Kaivu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Mairipepea Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Moravamu Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Kamaua Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Mira Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 12:00 Koravaki Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 21:30 Birab Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Amagoa Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Segero Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Tugara Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Dibiri Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Orapoi Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Oropai Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Gesco Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Tirere Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Dameramuda Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Bina No 1 Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 13:30 Maipani Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 16:30 Derby Australia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 21:15 Kladar Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 21:15 Sabon Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 21:15 Tor Indonesia  0.1
25 Feb 2020 23:30 Mariki Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 23:30 Ara'ava Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 23:30 Kinipo Papua New Guinea  0.1
25 Feb 2020 15:30 Innisfail Australia  0.1