Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
23 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (24 Feb 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 83 km/h 1.6 m 255 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 1.6 m 472 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

86 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia1,274 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 83 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmPapua New Guinea, Australia294
+
Papua New Guinea29 
Australia265 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, Australia504,288
+
Papua New Guinea320,442 
Australia183,846 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Australia1,559,960
+
Indonesia409,085 
Papua New Guinea994,702 
Timor-Leste3,171 
Australia153,002 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 00:00 123 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia
Blue 2 23 Feb 2020 12:00 469 500 thousand
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

1.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.6m in Karumba, Australia. This height is estimated for 24 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Karumba Australia  1.6
23 Feb 2020 23:15 Kowanyama Australia  0.7
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.6
23 Feb 2020 23:45 Mapoon Australia  0.5
23 Feb 2020 23:15 Cowel Creek Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Seisia Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Bamaga Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Cape York Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Hammond I Australia  0.5
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Port Kennedy Australia  0.5
23 Feb 2020 18:30 Numbulwar Australia  0.4
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Soeam Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Matara Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Urum Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Merauke Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Sarire Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Daub Indonesia  0.4
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Tamarike Indonesia  0.4
23 Feb 2020 22:30 Anansai Indonesia  0.4
23 Feb 2020 22:30 Wendu Indonesia  0.4
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Alyangula Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Jara Papua New Guinea  0.3
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Mari Papua New Guinea  0.3
23 Feb 2020 22:30 Kobiem Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 22:30 Okaba Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 22:30 Moegaigare Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 22:30 Alakoe Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 22:30 Alatepi Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 17:15 Kladar Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 17:15 Sabon Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 17:15 Tor Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 18:15 Bing Bong Australia  0.3
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 13:15 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 13:15 Birab Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 23:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 12:00 Per Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 12:00 Agats Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 12:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 12:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 12:45 Thundulda Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 12:45 Eyre Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Selemit Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 17:15 Wan Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 17:15 Konerau Indonesia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Caburinga Village Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 23:45 Gove Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 23:45 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 23:45 Yirrkala Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.2
24 Feb 2020 00:00 Aloszville Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 12:30 Running Creek Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 12:00 Derby Australia  0.1