Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTHER-20
in Australia
23 Feb 2020 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTHER-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (23 Feb 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 83 km/h 0.3 m 165 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 104 km/h 1.6 m 389 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

104 km/h

Up to 6 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormAustralia5,671 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Australia
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia113 
100-250 mmPapua New Guinea, Australia1,413,874
+
Papua New Guinea1,388,464 
Australia25,410 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia2,462,684
+
Indonesia120,578 
Papua New Guinea1,875,482 
Australia466,624 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 23 Feb 2020 12:00 464 1.4 million
- - - Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Kowanyama, Australia. This height is estimated for 23 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Soeam Indonesia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.3
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Taroea Anim Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Birab Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Thundulda Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Eyre Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Tor Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Mapoon Australia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Per Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Agats Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Amborip Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.2
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Fannie Bay Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Parap Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Darwin Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Nightcliff Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Ludmilla Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Bagot Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Leanyer Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Berrimah Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 The Palms Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Larrakeyah Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 18:00 Knuckeys Lagoon Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Cowel Creek Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Seisia Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Bamaga Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 17:30 Cape York Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 15:45 Aloszville Australia  0.1
23 Feb 2020 15:45 Running Creek Australia  0.1