Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DAMIEN-20
in Australia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 166 km/h
Maximum storm surge 3.2 m (08 Feb 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 166 km/h 3.2 m 269 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 180 km/h 3.0 m 650 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

180 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Australia18243 
CAT. 1Australia5801 
Tropical StormAustralia24551 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2020 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2020 06:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2020 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 06 Feb 2020 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2020 00:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Feb 2020 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2020 12:00 162 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 07 Feb 2020 18:00 173 20 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia146 
100-250 mmAustralia30711 
50-100 mmAustralia15117 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2020 00:00 406 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 2 06 Feb 2020 06:00 398 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 06 Feb 2020 12:00 242 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 06 Feb 2020 18:00 175 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Feb 2020 00:00 171 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 07 Feb 2020 06:00 267 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Feb 2020 12:00 320 -
- - - - - Australia
Blue 8 07 Feb 2020 18:00 484 30 thousand
- - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

3.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  3.2m in Dampier, Australia. This height is estimated for 08 Feb 2020 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Feb 2020 03:15 Dampier Australia  3.2
08 Feb 2020 03:15 Karratha Australia  3.2
08 Feb 2020 02:00 Wickham Australia  1.9
08 Feb 2020 02:00 Point Samson Australia  1.9
08 Feb 2020 02:00 Cossack Australia  1.9
08 Feb 2020 04:15 East Lewis I Australia  1.6
08 Feb 2020 00:15 Port Hedland Australia  0.8
07 Feb 2020 23:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2020 21:00 Condon Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2020 22:00 Pardoo Australia  0.5
07 Feb 2020 18:00 Mardie Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2020 21:00 Albany Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2020 21:00 Emu Point Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 09:00 Thangoo Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Kencong Indonesia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 12:45 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 08:45 Denmark Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 08:45 Youngs Australia  0.2
07 Feb 2020 23:00 Glenroy Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 08:45 Parryville Australia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 22:45 Eyre Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 18:00 Learmonth Australia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 22:30 Thundulda Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 01:00 Komodo Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:45 Warroora Australia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 10:00 Onslow Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 03:45 Exmouth Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 05:00 Hopetoun Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 05:00 Jerdacuttup Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 23:15 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 23:15 Waterbank Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 23:15 Broome Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 05:30 Minarup Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 04:30 Ngalu Indonesia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 04:30 Tapil Indonesia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 04:45 Oakdale Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 01:00 Lenteng Indonesia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 01:00 Rinca Indonesia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 01:30 Derby Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 20:00 Pender Australia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 11:15 Derby Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Latuna Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Bagang Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Toebal Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Noehawaila Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Tamelabang Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Kabir Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Maria Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Alor-kecil Indonesia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 19:00 Tandjung Margeta Indonesia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 06:30 Kollan I Australia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link