Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DAMIEN-20
in Australia
Impact Single TC
ECMWF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.5 m (08 Feb 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 97 km/h 2.5 m 173 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 133 km/h 2.4 m 550 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

133 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Australia18658 
Tropical StormAustralia22521 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 05 Feb 2020 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2020 12:00 151 20 thousand
- - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia11775 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Australia2142470
+
Indonesia2118113 
Australia24357 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia7446013
+
Indonesia7330059 
Timor-Leste105196 
Australia10758 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 05 Feb 2020 12:00 511 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Feb 2020 00:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 06 Feb 2020 12:00 422 2.2 million
- - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.5m in Dampier, Australia. This height is estimated for 08 Feb 2020 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Feb 2020 03:00 Dampier Australia  2.5
08 Feb 2020 03:00 Karratha Australia  2.5
08 Feb 2020 03:30 Wickham Australia  1.8
08 Feb 2020 03:30 Point Samson Australia  1.8
08 Feb 2020 03:30 Cossack Australia  1.8
08 Feb 2020 05:15 East Lewis I Australia  0.9
08 Feb 2020 00:45 Port Hedland Australia  0.6
07 Feb 2020 17:15 Ah Chong I Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2020 14:15 Condon Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2020 14:45 Pardoo Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2020 16:30 Mardie Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2020 01:00 Albany Australia  0.3
07 Feb 2020 01:00 Emu Point Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2020 12:15 Thangoo Australia  0.3
08 Feb 2020 08:15 Denmark Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 08:15 Youngs Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 08:30 Parryville Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2020 13:30 Derby Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:15 Waterbank Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
09 Feb 2020 11:30 Derby Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2020 12:00 Broome Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 09:45 Onslow Australia  0.2
09 Feb 2020 12:00 Eyre Australia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 07:00 Glenroy Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:45 Oakdale Australia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 11:45 Thundulda Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:45 Minarup Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 10:00 Jerdacuttup Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 21:15 Pender Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 10:00 Hopetoun Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 14:45 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 14:45 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 08:45 Exmouth Australia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link