Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
14 Feb 2020 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (14 Feb 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 76 km/h 0.4 m 265 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 83 km/h 0.4 m 1102 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

83 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar17,192 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 90 -
- - - - - Madagascar
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMadagascar160,546 
250-500 mmMadagascar192,516 
100-250 mmMadagascar719,121 
50-100 mmMadagascar777,583 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 248 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 277 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 423 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 06 Feb 2020 06:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 06 Feb 2020 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 14 Feb 2020 00:00 111 Few people
- - - - Madagascar
Blue 10 14 Feb 2020 06:00 1233 1.1 million
- - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 14 Feb 2020 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.4
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.4
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.4
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.4
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.3
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Manompana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Fenerive Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Antsikafoka Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Mahambo Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Kalomalala Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Ambila-Lemaitso Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Vavony Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Ampanotoamaizina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 08:45 Vatobe Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 10:15 Amboditafara Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Manambato Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:15 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:15 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
14 Feb 2020 09:15 Rantabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Befamata Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Zavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Lavanono Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:45 Tampina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:15 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Marosiky Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Seranandavitra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Maintinandry Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Ankarefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 11:15 Vatomandry Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 11:15 Manakambahiny Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:15 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:30 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:30 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:30 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:30 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:15 Ambalanosy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Behavoa Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:15 Vohitramposina Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:15 Ampitabe Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:45 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:45 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:45 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:45 Maniroka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:45 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:15 Antalavia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Namahoaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 12:00 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:45 Marofinaritra Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:45 Mahatsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:15 Ambinanivolo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:15 Ambalavontaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:15 Masomeloka Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 09:30 Fananehana Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:45 Tamatave Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Masokoamena Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Katsepy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Majunga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Boanamary Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Ampitilova Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Moraharivo Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 06:00 Antsianitia Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambodihariha Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Antetezambaro Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Vohitsara Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Ambinanysahavary Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 07:30 Taratasy Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 08:30 Bevoalavo Est Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:30 Andringahely Madagascar  0.1
14 Feb 2020 10:30 Ampisikanana Madagascar  0.1