Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20
in Madagascar, Mauritius,
06 Feb 2020 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 119 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (06 Feb 04:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 119 km/h 0.2 m 423 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 83 km/h 0.4 m 1102 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

1102 mm

No people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 04 Feb 2020 18:00 248 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 05 Feb 2020 00:00 237 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 05 Feb 2020 06:00 277 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 05 Feb 2020 12:00 308 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 05 Feb 2020 18:00 269 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 06 Feb 2020 00:00 710 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Saint-Antoine, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2020 04:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2020 04:45 Saint-Antoine Mauritius  0.2
06 Feb 2020 05:00 Riche-en-Eau Mauritius  0.2
06 Feb 2020 05:00 Maheboug Mauritius  0.2
06 Feb 2020 05:00 Grande Reviere Sud Est Mauritius  0.2
08 Feb 2020 03:30 La Ferme Mauritius  0.1
08 Feb 2020 03:30 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:15 Point Marianne British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:15 East Point Plantation British Indian Ocean Territory  0.1
06 Feb 2020 20:30 Riviere du Rempart Mauritius  0.1
07 Feb 2020 13:15 Saint-Paul Reunion  0.1
07 Feb 2020 13:15 Saint-Leu Reunion  0.1
07 Feb 2020 13:15 Trois Bassins Reunion  0.1
07 Feb 2020 13:15 Le Port Reunion  0.1
07 Feb 2020 13:15 La Possession Reunion  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:30 Saint-Denis Reunion  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:30 Saint-Marie Reunion  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:30 Sainte-Suzanne Reunion  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:30 Saint-Andre Reunion  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:30 Bras-Panon Reunion  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:30 Saint-Benoit Reunion  0.1
06 Feb 2020 03:15 La Roche Godon French Southern and Antarctic Lands  0.1