Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
18 Sep 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 122 km/h
Maximum storm surge 4.7 m (18 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 122 km/h 4.7 m 459 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 122 km/h 4.7 m 269 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico333 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 180 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

269 mm

Up to 510 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico995 
100-250 mmMexico505,295 
50-100 mmMexico487,855 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 365 1 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 504 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 1063 510 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  4.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  4.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tecolutla Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 18:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Buen Pais Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Alvarado Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Conejo Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  3.6
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  3.6
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tamiahua Mexico  2.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 El Naranjal Mexico  2.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Nautla Mexico  2.6
18 Sep 2019 18:00 El Laurel Mexico  2.6
18 Sep 2019 18:00 La Pesca Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 San Cosme Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Santa Marta Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  1.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Los Pericos Mexico  1.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  1.5
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  1.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Laja Mexico  1.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Port Isabel United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 South Padre Island United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Boca Chica United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 La Presita Mexico  0.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.5
18 Sep 2019 12:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 12:45 Loreto Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 16:15 Datilito Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 16:15 La Paz Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 16:15 Rosario Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 15:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 16:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 16:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 16:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 12:00 High Island United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 12:15 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 12:15 Caplen United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 12:15 Gilchrist United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 15:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 15:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Sabine United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:15 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Patton United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:15 Flake United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:15 Elmgrove United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:45 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:00 Hidalgo Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:00 Francisco I. Madero Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:15 Ligui Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:15 Tripui Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:30 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Fort Travis United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:45 Arista Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:45 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Constance Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:00 Oak Grove United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:00 Grand Chenier United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:15 Cameron United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 13:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Texas City United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Virginia Point United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Galveston United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:45 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Holly Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 13:30 La Choya Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 13:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:45 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:15 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:15 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:15 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:30 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:15 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:15 Sea Isle United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:15 Hitchcock United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:30 Monte de Oro Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 13:00 Tupilco Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 13:45 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 13:45 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:30 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:30 El Roble Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 13:15 Sanchez Magallanes Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 15:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 13:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1