Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
18 Sep 2019 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 90 km/h
Maximum storm surge 4.7 m (18 Sep 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 90 km/h 4.7 m 504 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 122 km/h 4.7 m 269 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

122 km/h

Up to 60 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico63,960 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMexico5,847 
250-500 mmMexico199,290 
100-250 mmMexico600,009 
50-100 mmMexico1,418,860 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 365 1 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 1288 810 thousand
- - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  4.7
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  4.7
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Tecolutla Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 06:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Buen Pais Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Alvarado Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Conejo Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  3.6
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  3.6
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Tamiahua Mexico  2.7
18 Sep 2019 06:00 El Naranjal Mexico  2.7
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Nautla Mexico  2.6
18 Sep 2019 06:00 El Laurel Mexico  2.6
18 Sep 2019 06:00 La Pesca Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 06:00 San Cosme Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Santa Marta Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  1.7
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Los Pericos Mexico  1.7
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  1.5
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  1.3
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Laja Mexico  1.3
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.9
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Port Isabel United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 06:00 South Padre Island United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Boca Chica United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 06:00 La Presita Mexico  0.7
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.5
18 Sep 2019 04:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 04:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 01:30 Novillero Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 01:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Flake United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Elmgrove United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Patton United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Caplen United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Gilchrist United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 03:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Peary Place United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 06:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:15 Sea Isle United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:15 Hitchcock United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:15 Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:15 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:15 Virginia Point United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 05:15 Galveston United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 04:45 High Island United States  0.2
18 Sep 2019 00:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:00 Fort Travis United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:30 Texas City United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 04:45 Sabine United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:30 Red Fish Cove United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:30 Bay Harbor United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 01:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Hoskins United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Port Morris United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 03:15 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 03:15 Constance Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 03:15 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Quintana United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Surfside United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Mims United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Surfside Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 00:45 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 02:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Gulf Park United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Hoskins United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Valasco Heights United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:45 Freeport United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 05:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 04:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 01:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 01:15 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 01:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 03:00 Holly Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 01:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1