Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 50 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (16 Mar 12:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 50 km/h 0.4 m 452 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

194 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 15 Mar 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 15 Mar 2019 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 15 Mar 2019 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 16 Mar 2019 00:00 50 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique82768
+
Mozambique27358 
Zimbabwe55410 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar4128170
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1411 
Tanzania8854 
Malawi327976 
Mozambique3032460 
Zimbabwe755256 
Madagascar2213 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Swaziland, Lesotho, South Africa8870792
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo588069 
Burundi290923 
Tanzania149143 
Zambia1366538 
Malawi2431466 
Mozambique1469331 
Zimbabwe2385754 
Madagascar49755 
Swaziland55033 
Lesotho2204 
South Africa82576 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 873 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 913 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 896 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 1214 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 15 Mar 2019 06:00 783 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 15 Mar 2019 12:00 702 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 15 Mar 2019 18:00 517 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 16 Mar 2019 00:00 452 4.2 million
- - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Swaziland, Lesotho, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Colchester, South Africa. This height is estimated for 16 Mar 2019 12:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
16 Mar 2019 12:45 Colchester South Africa  0.4
16 Mar 2019 13:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:15 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:15 Tama Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:30 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 00:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Memba Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Formone Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 20:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
18 Mar 2019 15:00 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
18 Mar 2019 15:00 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
18 Mar 2019 15:00 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Jo Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 01:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link