Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 79 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (15 Mar 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 79 km/h 0.7 m 783 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

194 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 15 Mar 2019 06:00 79 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMozambique37 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe43692
+
Mozambique33481 
Zimbabwe10211 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique633752
+
Mozambique564095 
Zimbabwe69657 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar4111663
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo5494 
Zambia1613 
Mozambique2750198 
Malawi486908 
Madagascar38 
Zimbabwe867412 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa7941093
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo544078 
Burundi25793 
Tanzania11738 
Zambia378122 
Mozambique1440452 
Malawi3802101 
Madagascar40048 
Zimbabwe1530271 
South Africa168490 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 873 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 913 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 896 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 15 Mar 2019 00:00 1214 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 15 Mar 2019 06:00 783 4.8 million
- Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Nova Sofala, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.7
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.4
16 Mar 2019 00:45 Colchester South Africa  0.3
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Nhangau Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Panaca Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 07:30 Tama Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 06:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 06:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 06:15 Jo Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 06:15 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 07:45 Jonja Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Afonso Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Catine Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Caulino Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Mariano Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Asneira Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 07:45 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:15 Richmond South Africa  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Memba Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Formone Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 07:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 07:45 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:15 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:30 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:30 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:45 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:45 China Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:45 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:00 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:30 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:30 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 07:30 Barra Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link