Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 162 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.0 m (14 Mar 20:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 162 km/h 2.0 m 896 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique689124 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 162 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 4.4 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe10718
+
Mozambique10715 
Zimbabwe3 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe75122
+
Mozambique57985 
Zimbabwe17137 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique1696984
+
Mozambique1564651 
Zimbabwe132333 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar2579666
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo13308 
Zambia1223 
Mozambique1387294 
Malawi288404 
Zimbabwe888900 
Madagascar537 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa8905554
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo513061 
Tanzania59451 
Zambia1688209 
Mozambique1367099 
Malawi3118768 
Zimbabwe2103601 
Madagascar54101 
South Africa1264 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 873 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 913 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 14 Mar 2019 18:00 896 4.4 million
- Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.0m in Damiao, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 20:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 18:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Damiao Mozambique  2.0
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  2.0
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Nhangau Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Panaca Mozambique  1.9
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Tama Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Jonja Mozambique  1.5
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Divinhe Mozambique  1.5
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Chiloane Mozambique  1.5
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Bingue Mozambique  1.0
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Jo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Laisse Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.5
16 Mar 2019 12:45 Colchester South Africa  0.4
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Richmond South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Memba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Formone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Barra Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 China Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:00 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:00 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
17 Mar 2019 18:00 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Amado Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 06:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chumbuni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Taandani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chekea Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Uchangani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Temi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chake Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Ziwani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Kijichame Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Jojo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Kitwea Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Dutani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Hurumuzi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Vumba Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Afo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 11:15 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Palma Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Boala Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link