Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.9 m (14 Mar 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 169 km/h 1.9 m 913 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique686510 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 169 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 4.8 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe15675
+
Mozambique15672 
Zimbabwe3 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe567761
+
Mozambique551488 
Zimbabwe16273 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique933579
+
Mozambique812437 
Zimbabwe121142 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar3254066
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1 
Tanzania111 
Zambia22 
Malawi322272 
Mozambique1610553 
Madagascar150 
Zimbabwe1320957 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa8030105
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo373055 
Tanzania263390 
Zambia1558511 
Malawi2877758 
Mozambique1225760 
Madagascar80331 
Zimbabwe1630650 
South Africa20650 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 873 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 14 Mar 2019 12:00 913 4.8 million
- Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.9m in Damiao, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 21:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Damiao Mozambique  1.9
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Nhangau Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 20:15 Panaca Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 19:30 Tama Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Jonja Mozambique  1.5
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Divinhe Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Chiloane Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 16:45 Bingue Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Rupia Mozambique  0.9
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.9
14 Mar 2019 12:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Jo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Laisse Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 18:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.4
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Colchester South Africa  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Richmond South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Memba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Formone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:00 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Barra Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Chichocane Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 China Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 00:00 Mahoa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Beula Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.2
16 Mar 2019 13:30 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:15 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 15:30 Amado Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:45 Afo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:00 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:00 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:30 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:30 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Metula Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Vila Luisa Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 D'lhelo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Linchica Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Palma Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Boala Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Bawala Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:00 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link