Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 173 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.8 m (15 Mar 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 173 km/h 1.8 m 873 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 173 km/h 2.9 m 1098 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique633962 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 173 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 194 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 184 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 187 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 173 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

760 mm

Up to 3.8 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMozambique10893 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe484928
+
Mozambique480713 
Zimbabwe4215 
250-500 mmZimbabwe, Mozambique1386875
+
Mozambique1323011 
Zimbabwe63864 
100-250 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar1913450
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo3811 
Mozambique1222158 
Madagascar458 
Zimbabwe687023 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa6245922
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo636578 
Burundi32393 
Tanzania302394 
Zambia1053434 
Malawi1901247 
Mozambique1143586 
Madagascar88860 
Zimbabwe1032048 
South Africa55382 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Mar 2019 06:00 1148 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 12:00 770 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 18:00 1083 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 975 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 06:00 814 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 10 Mar 2019 12:00 780 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 10 Mar 2019 18:00 848 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 11 Mar 2019 00:00 915 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 11 Mar 2019 06:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 11 Mar 2019 12:00 760 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 11 Mar 2019 18:00 590 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 12 Mar 2019 00:00 592 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 12 Mar 2019 06:00 573 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 12 Mar 2019 12:00 667 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 12 Mar 2019 18:00 643 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 13 Mar 2019 00:00 649 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 13 Mar 2019 06:00 548 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 13 Mar 2019 12:00 635 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 13 Mar 2019 18:00 626 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 14 Mar 2019 00:00 691 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 14 Mar 2019 06:00 873 3.8 million
- Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, South Africa




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.8m in Nova Sofala, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 15 Mar 2019 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Mar 2019 06:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
15 Mar 2019 02:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.8
15 Mar 2019 00:45 Damiao Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Nhangau Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 23:00 Panaca Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 22:30 Tama Mozambique  1.7
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Jonja Mozambique  1.6
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Bingue Mozambique  1.4
15 Mar 2019 02:00 Divinhe Mozambique  1.3
15 Mar 2019 02:00 Chiloane Mozambique  1.3
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Rupia Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 18:15 Machesse Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.7
15 Mar 2019 01:45 Jo Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 01:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.5
15 Mar 2019 03:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.4
15 Mar 2019 03:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.4
14 Mar 2019 07:15 Amado Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 03:00 Natalia Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.3
15 Mar 2019 07:00 Colchester South Africa  0.3
14 Mar 2019 07:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 23:30 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 07:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 07:15 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 07:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 07:15 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 07:15 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Memba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Formone Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 11:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 11:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:00 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 13:00 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Beula Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Mabsil Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Marivate Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Miramar Mozambique  0.2
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Bevatry Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 14:00 Richmond South Africa  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:15 China Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 00:15 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 15:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 23:45 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:15 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 09:15 Afo Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:00 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 14:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:30 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:45 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.1
16 Mar 2019 13:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Momade Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 12:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 13:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:30 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Palma Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Quionga Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Boala Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Maganja Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:00 Quiwia Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
15 Mar 2019 16:00 Malindi Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 16:00 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 16:00 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 16:00 Ngomeni Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 06:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 11:45 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Manampatra Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:30 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 14:15 Watamu Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chumbuni Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Taandani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chekea Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Uchangani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Temi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Chake Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Ziwani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Kijichame Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Jojo Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Kitwea Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Dutani Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Hurumuzi Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:45 Vumba Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 12:30 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 13:45 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1

Calculation folder at this link