Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MITCHELL-26 in Australia from 06 Feb 2026 00:00 UTC to 09 Feb 2026 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for MITCHELL-26

in Australia

09 Feb 2026 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MITCHELL-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	7 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	148 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.3 m (08 Feb 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)
Landfall	between 08 Feb 2026 12:00 - 08 Feb 2026 18:00 in Australia

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	83 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	148 km/h	1.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

83 km/h Current Max.

Up to 83000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	06 Feb 2026 00:00	139	50 thousand	1 thousand	Australia
2	06 Feb 2026 06:00	139	80 thousand	40 thousand	Australia
3	06 Feb 2026 12:00	148	60 thousand	5 thousand	Australia
4	06 Feb 2026 18:00	148	80 thousand	4 thousand	Australia
5	07 Feb 2026 00:00	148	80 thousand	6 thousand	Australia
6	07 Feb 2026 06:00	167	80 thousand	8 thousand	Australia
7	07 Feb 2026 12:00	157	80 thousand	10 thousand	Australia
8	07 Feb 2026 18:00	148	80 thousand	9 thousand	Australia
9	08 Feb 2026 00:00	139	80 thousand	9 thousand	Australia
10	08 Feb 2026 06:00	130	80 thousand	7 thousand	Australia
11	08 Feb 2026 12:00	111	80 thousand	7 thousand	Australia
12	08 Feb 2026 18:00	111	80 thousand	7 thousand	Australia
13	09 Feb 2026 00:00	102	80 thousand	7 thousand	Australia
14	09 Feb 2026 06:00	93	80 thousand	7 thousand	Australia
15	09 Feb 2026 12:00	83	80 thousand	7 thousand	Australia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	06 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-17.8, 121.9
2	06 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	6600 people	-18.8, 120.9
3	06 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-18.5, 119.8
4	06 Feb 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	66000 people	-18.9, 119
5	07 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	68000 people	-19, 118.4
6	07 Feb 2026 06:00	Category 1	120	3700 people	73000 people	-19.4, 117.6
7	07 Feb 2026 12:00	Category 1	139	5800 people	50000 people	-20, 116.7
8	07 Feb 2026 18:00	Category 1	148	3600 people	50000 people	-20.3, 116.2
9	08 Feb 2026 00:00	Category 1	139	5700 people	50000 people	-20.7, 115.6	Australia
10	08 Feb 2026 06:00	Category 1	130	2400 people	6500 people	-21.3, 114.6
11	08 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	4800 people	-21.6, 114
12	08 Feb 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	7700 people	-22.1, 113.8	Australia
13	09 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	6100 people	-23.1, 113.6	Australia
14	09 Feb 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	5900 people	-24.5, 113.4	Australia
15	09 Feb 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	5900 people	-25.3, 113.8	Australia
15	10 Feb 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-27.2, 115.4	Australia

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Australia	73000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Western Australia	Australia	73000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Exmouth	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Dampier	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Karratha	Western Australia	Australia	City	11000 people
South Hedland	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Wedgefield	Western Australia	Australia	City	-
Port Hedland	Western Australia	Australia	City	14000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Carnarvon	CVQ	4	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5500
Shark Bay	MJK	34	Priv.	Paved	No	5500
Useless Loop	USL	unknown				0
Exmouth Gulf	EXM	unknown				0
Learmonth	LEA	6	Mil.	Paved	Yes	9900
Onslow	ONS	7	Civ.	Unpaved	Yes	4400
Barrow Island	BWB	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6200
Karratha	KTA	9	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6000
Roebourne	RBU	unknown				0
Port Hedland	PHE	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
Wallal	WLA	unknown				0
Mandora	MQA	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Carnarvon	AUCVQ	Coral Sea Islands
Denham		Coral Sea Islands
Useless Loop	AUUSL	Coral Sea Islands
Hamelin Pool		Coral Sea Islands
Cape Cuvier		Coral Sea Islands
Maud Landing		Coral Sea Islands
Exmouth	AUPEX	Coral Sea Islands
Learmonth		Coral Sea Islands
Port Exmouth		Coral Sea Islands
Onslow		Coral Sea Islands
Saladin Marine Terminal	AUSMT	Coral Sea Islands
Airlie Island Terminal		Coral Sea Islands
Griffin Venture	AUGRV	Coral Sea Islands
Barrow Island	AUBWB	Coral Sea Islands
Varanus Island	AUVAR	Coral Sea Islands
Cape Preston	AUCPN	Coral Sea Islands
Dampier	AUDAM	Coral Sea Islands
Withnell Bay		Coral Sea Islands
Roebourne	AURBU	Coral Sea Islands
Port Walcott	AUPWL	Coral Sea Islands
Point Samson	AUPSM	Coral Sea Islands
Wandoo Marine Terminal		Coral Sea Islands
Cossack Pioneer	AUCOP	Coral Sea Islands
Port Hedland	AUPHE	Coral Sea Islands
Lagrange		Coral Sea Islands

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
Poongkaliyarra	Harding	Harding	1985

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.3m in Learmonth, Australia. This height is estimated for 08 Feb 2026 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (34 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 09 Feb 2026 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Feb 2026 17:00	Learmonth	Australia	1.3
	07 Feb 2026 15:00	Wickham	Australia	1.3
	07 Feb 2026 15:00	Point Samson	Australia	1.3
	07 Feb 2026 15:00	Cossack	Australia	1.3
	08 Feb 2026 03:00	Mardie	Australia	1.1
	06 Feb 2026 13:00	Derby	Australia	0.9
	07 Feb 2026 19:00	East Lewis I	Australia	0.8
	08 Feb 2026 15:00	Exmouth	Australia	0.8
	07 Feb 2026 22:00	Ah Chong I	Australia	0.8
	08 Feb 2026 12:00	Glenroy	Australia	0.6
	07 Feb 2026 07:00	Condon	Australia	0.5
	09 Feb 2026 00:00	Cardabia	Australia	0.4
	09 Feb 2026 10:00	Carnarvon	Australia	0.4
	06 Feb 2026 10:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.4
	06 Feb 2026 06:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.4
	06 Feb 2026 12:00	Pender	Australia	0.3
	09 Feb 2026 02:00	Warroora	Australia	0.3
	06 Feb 2026 06:00	Broome	Australia	0.3
	09 Feb 2026 03:00	Gnaraloo	Australia	0.3
	06 Feb 2026 09:00	Waterbank	Australia	0.2
	08 Feb 2026 23:00	Ningaloo	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 09:00	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.2
	09 Feb 2026 06:00	Quobba	Australia	0.2
	09 Feb 2026 06:00	Cape Cuvier	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 14:00	Nightcliff	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 14:00	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 14:00	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 14:00	Parap	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 14:00	Darwin	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 14:00	Ludmilla	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 14:00	Bagot	Australia	0.2
	08 Feb 2026 20:00	Bundera Bundera	Australia	0.2
	06 Feb 2026 15:00	Leanyer	Australia	0.2
	09 Feb 2026 17:00	Shark Bay	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.