Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for SIXTEEN-26 in New Caledonia from 21 Jan 2026 00:00 UTC to 23 Jan 2026 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green Tropical Cyclone for SIXTEEN-26

in New Caledonia

23 Jan 2026 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SIXTEEN-26 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	New Caledonia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	74 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (21 Jan 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	74 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 270000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	21 Jan 2026 00:00	74	290 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
2	21 Jan 2026 06:00	74	290 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
3	21 Jan 2026 12:00	74	270 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
4	21 Jan 2026 18:00	74	270 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
5	22 Jan 2026 00:00	74	270 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
6	22 Jan 2026 06:00	65	270 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
7	22 Jan 2026 12:00	74	270 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
8	22 Jan 2026 18:00	65	270 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
9	23 Jan 2026 00:00	65	270 thousand	No people	New Caledonia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	21 Jan 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	10000 people	-17.5, 159.1
2	21 Jan 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	44000 people	-19.1, 161.1
3	21 Jan 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	270000 people	-20.8, 163
4	21 Jan 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	260000 people	-22.1, 164.5
5	22 Jan 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1400 people	-23.5, 166.9
6	22 Jan 2026 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-24.5, 169.4
7	22 Jan 2026 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-25.2, 172.4
8	22 Jan 2026 18:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-25.8, 174.8
9	23 Jan 2026 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-25.9, 177
9	23 Jan 2026 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-26.1, -178.9
9	24 Jan 2026 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-26.3, -175.7

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
New Caledonia	260000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
New Caledonia	New Caledonia	260000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Nouméa		New Caledonia	Capital	83000 people
Comm. du Mont-Dore		New Caledonia	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Ile Ouen	IOU	unknown				0
Noumea / Magenta	GEA	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4100
La Tontouta	NOU	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10600
Mueo	PDC	unknown				0
Kone	KNQ	7	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Koumac	KOC	13	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Poum	PUV	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Kuto		New Caledonia
Noumea	NCNOU	New Caledonia
Ducos	NCDUS	New Caledonia
Nepoui	NCNEP	New Caledonia
Babouillat		New Caledonia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Arama, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 21 Jan 2026 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (30 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 23 Jan 2026 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 Jan 2026 14:00	Arama	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Jan 2026 17:00	Kaala-Gomen	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Jan 2026 16:00	Paagoumene	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Poum-Plage	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Poum	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Jan 2026 14:00	Pam	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Tiabet	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Jan 2026 17:00	Ouaco	New Caledonia	0.2
	21 Jan 2026 12:00	Ono	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 12:00	Wala	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 11:00	Panane	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 11:00	Mouane	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 12:00	Houone	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 16:00	Oundjo	New Caledonia	0.1
	22 Jan 2026 01:00	Kuto	New Caledonia	0.1
	22 Jan 2026 01:00	Vao	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 12:00	Bweo	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 12:00	Pairome	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 14:00	Koumac	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 16:00	Voh	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 16:00	Tarbeville	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 16:00	Pinjen	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 16:00	Nepoui	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Ometteux	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Ponerihouen	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Bayes	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Touho	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Meomo	New Caledonia	0.1
	21 Jan 2026 15:00	Houailou	New Caledonia	0.1
	22 Jan 2026 02:00	Gadji	New Caledonia	0.1

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.