Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2023-000023-MDG
Exposed countries Mozambique, Madagascar
Exposed population 2.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 250 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (06 Feb 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)
Landfall between
21 Feb 2023 12:00 - 22 Feb 2023 12:00

in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 185 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 2.5
Overall 250 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 185 No people No people
Green 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 185 No people No people
Green 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 194 No people No people
Green 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 194 No people No people
Green 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 204 No people No people
Green 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 204 No people No people
Green 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 185 No people No people
Green 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 176 No people No people
Green 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 176 No people No people
Green 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 157 No people No people
Green 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 139 No people No people
Green 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 148 No people No people
Green 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 157 No people No people
Green 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 157 No people No people
Green 15 10 Feb 2023 00:00 157 No people No people
Green 16 10 Feb 2023 12:00 185 No people No people
Green 17 11 Feb 2023 00:00 185 No people No people
Green 18 11 Feb 2023 12:00 204 No people No people
Green 19 12 Feb 2023 00:00 213 No people No people
Green 20 12 Feb 2023 12:00 185 No people No people
Green 21 13 Feb 2023 00:00 204 No people No people
Green 22 13 Feb 2023 12:00 204 No people No people
Green 23 14 Feb 2023 00:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 14 Feb 2023 12:00 204 No people No people
Green 25 15 Feb 2023 00:00 241 No people No people
Green 26 15 Feb 2023 12:00 250 4 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 27 16 Feb 2023 00:00 250 No people No people
Green 28 16 Feb 2023 12:00 231 2.5 million No people Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands, Madagascar
Orange 29 17 Feb 2023 00:00 204 13.7 million 1000 thousand Madagascar
Orange 30 17 Feb 2023 12:00 176 13.7 million 1.8 million Madagascar
Red 31 18 Feb 2023 00:00 204 14.3 million 1.1 million Madagascar
Red 32 18 Feb 2023 12:00 185 10.4 million 1.8 million Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.2, 118.6
GREEN
2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -12.6, 118.5
GREEN
3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -13, 118.5
GREEN
4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -13.9, 117.8
GREEN
5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -14.4, 117
GREEN
6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -14.6, 116.1
GREEN
7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -14.9, 115.3
GREEN
8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -15.1, 114.5
GREEN
9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -15.3, 113.7
GREEN
10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16, 113.1
GREEN
11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.3, 112.6
GREEN
12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16, 111
GREEN
13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -15.4, 110.3
GREEN
14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -15.4, 109.6
GREEN
15 10 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -15.3, 108.4
GREEN
16 10 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -14.8, 106.5
GREEN
17 11 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -14.8, 104.8
GREEN
18 11 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 3 194 no people no people -14.8, 103
GREEN
19 12 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 4 213 no people no people -15, 101.2
GREEN
20 12 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -15.1, 98.9
GREEN
21 13 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -15.1, 96.8
GREEN
22 13 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -15.4, 94.6
GREEN
23 14 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -15.4, 92.5
GREEN
24 14 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 2 176 no people no people -15.4, 90
GREEN
25 15 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people -15.3, 87.3
GREEN
26 15 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 4 250 no people no people -15, 84.9
GREEN
27 16 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 4 250 no people no people -14.8, 82.5
GREEN
28 16 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 4 231 no people no people -15, 79.5
GREEN
29 17 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people -15.4, 76.6
GREEN
30 17 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 4 222 no people no people -15.8, 73.8
GREEN
31 18 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 4 213 no people no people -16.1, 71.5
GREEN
32 18 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people -16.2, 69.4
GREEN
32 19 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 3 204 no people no people -16.5, 66.9
GREEN
32 19 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people -17, 64.1
GREEN
32 20 Feb 2023 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 1.2 million people -17.6, 61
GREEN
32 20 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 4 222 no people 3.1 million people -18.4, 57.6
RED
32 21 Feb 2023 12:00 Category 3 185 1.8 million people 8.4 million people -20.1, 50.5
GREEN
32 22 Feb 2023 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 760000 people -21.7, 44.7 Madagascar
GREEN
32 23 Feb 2023 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -22, 40.7
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Madagascar 1.8 million people

Provinces

Region Province Country Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Toamasina Madagascar 81000 people
Fianarantsoa Madagascar 1.6 million people
Toliara Madagascar 39000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Mananjary Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 27000 people
Ambositra Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 30000 people
Fianarantsoa Fianarantsoa Madagascar City 160000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Mananjary MNJ 6 Civ. Paved No 4900
Fianarantsoa WFI 1115 Civ. Paved No 4100
Beroroha WBO 250 Civ. Unpaved No 3100

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mananjary MGMNJ Madagascar

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Sabui, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2023 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (65 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 19 of 12 Feb 2023 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Sabui Indonesia  0.5
06 Feb 2023 12:00 Pagatan Indonesia  0.4
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Pagarantimun Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Pagetan Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Koealasapo Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Sungaitapah Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Kualalupak Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Aluhaluh Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Tambakkarangan Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Tabanio Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Bawahalajung Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 11:00 Mutua Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 11:00 Tandjoengselaka Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Loentji Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Kandangan Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Batakam Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 09:00 Pulaukutjing Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 11:00 Bapuju Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 11:00 Bahaur Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 12:00 Setiroek Indonesia  0.3
06 Feb 2023 18:00 Derby Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Semisir Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 15:00 Kollan I Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Makasar Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Tandjungniur Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Tempilang Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Keludin Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 15:00 Pender Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 13:00 Pagatan Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 13:00 Salinau Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 13:00 Semaras Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 13:00 Okaoka Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Manda Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 13:00 Tapianbalai Indonesia  0.2
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Sanrabone Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Tamalaba Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Tjadia Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Bisali Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Kanaoengan Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Anjai Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Radjik Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Bontobonto Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 16:00 Broome Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Tandjungklumpang Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Karamak Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 14:00 Boenati Indonesia  0.1
08 Feb 2023 05:00 Wickham Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2023 05:00 Point Samson Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2023 05:00 Cossack Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 12:00 Segintong Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 16:00 Thangoo Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Gailesong Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 16:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 16:00 Waterbank Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2023 12:00 Mardie Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Lait Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 08:00 Tandjungkiras Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Tiempae Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Mandalle Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Padaelo Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 10:00 Sampungbinangu Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 17:00 Condon Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2023 13:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2023 14:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2023 14:00 Sekapoeng Indonesia  0.1