Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: FL-2021-000166-VNM
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 167 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (25 Oct 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
25 Oct 2021 12:00 - 26 Oct 2021 00:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 148 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 167 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 510000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 139 2 million 560 thousand Mexico
Orange 2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 120 9 million 2.8 million Mexico
Orange 3 23 Oct 2021 03:00 148 9.3 million 520 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -100.5
GREEN
2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.1, -101
GREEN
3 23 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.4, -101.3
GREEN
3 23 Oct 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14, -101.7
GREEN
3 24 Oct 2021 00:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.8, -102.1
GREEN
3 24 Oct 2021 12:00 Category 2 157 100000 people no people 15.5, -102.4
GREEN
3 25 Oct 2021 00:00 Category 2 167 610000 people no people 16.4, -102.8
ORANGE
3 25 Oct 2021 12:00 Category 1 148 3.4 million people 510000 people 17.7, -103.2
GREEN
3 26 Oct 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 111 8.8 million people no people 19.4, -103.5 Mexico
GREEN
3 27 Oct 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 24, -104 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Michoacan Mexico 3.8 million people
Colima Mexico 460000 people
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
Colima Colima Mexico Major city 120000 people
Tecalitlán Jalisco Mexico City 12000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Coahuayana 61 0
Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Tuxpan 1225 Mil. Paved No 6700

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Trojes Coahuayana 1994

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Maruata, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 23 Oct 2021 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Oct 2021 16:00 Maruata Mexico  0.3
25 Oct 2021 15:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 16:00 Bucerias Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 14:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 09:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 18:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 20:00 Apisa Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:00 Chula Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 12:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 19:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1