Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: FL-2021-000166-VNM
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 167 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (25 Oct 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
25 Oct 2021 09:00 - 25 Oct 2021 15:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 37 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
Overall 167 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

37 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 139 2 million 560 thousand Mexico
Orange 2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 120 9 million 2.8 million Mexico
Orange 3 23 Oct 2021 03:00 148 9.3 million 520 thousand Mexico
Orange 4 23 Oct 2021 09:00 185 8.9 million 870 thousand Mexico
Red 5 23 Oct 2021 15:00 194 11 million 340 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 23 Oct 2021 21:00 157 8.9 million 250 thousand Mexico
Red 7 24 Oct 2021 03:00 185 9.4 million 250 thousand Mexico
Orange 8 24 Oct 2021 09:00 157 6.3 million 210 thousand Mexico
Orange 9 24 Oct 2021 15:00 167 2.4 million 250 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 24 Oct 2021 21:00 148 1.7 million 200 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 25 Oct 2021 03:00 157 2 million 300 thousand Mexico
Orange 12 25 Oct 2021 09:00 167 2.7 million 310 thousand Mexico
Orange 13 25 Oct 2021 15:00 130 9.2 million 530 thousand Mexico
Green 14 25 Oct 2021 21:00 56 3.2 million 740 thousand Mexico
Green 15 26 Oct 2021 03:00 37 3.2 million 740 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -100.5
GREEN
2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.1, -101
GREEN
3 23 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.4, -101.3
GREEN
4 23 Oct 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 13.9, -101.4
GREEN
5 23 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 14.7, -101.5
GREEN
6 23 Oct 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, -101.8
GREEN
7 24 Oct 2021 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.3, -102
GREEN
8 24 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.6, -101.7
GREEN
9 24 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 139 390000 people no people 16.1, -101.7
GREEN
10 24 Oct 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 430000 people no people 16.3, -101.7
GREEN
11 25 Oct 2021 03:00 Category 1 148 590000 people 84000 people 16.8, -101.6
ORANGE
12 25 Oct 2021 09:00 Category 2 167 1.7 million people 290000 people 17.7, -101.9
ORANGE
13 25 Oct 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 2.9 million people 240000 people 18.6, -102.2 Mexico
GREEN
14 25 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 20, -102.5 Mexico
GREEN
15 26 Oct 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 20.4, -103.1 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Jalisco Mexico 5.8 million people
Michoacan Mexico 3.9 million people
Guerrero Mexico 2.9 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Ocotlán Jalisco Mexico City 78000 people
Sauhayo Michoacan de Ocampo Mexico City -
La Barca Jalisco Mexico City 34000 people
Jiquilpan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 26000 people
Cotija Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 14000 people
Yurécuaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 20000 people
Zamora Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 120000 people
Uruapan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 240000 people
Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people
Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
Pátzcuaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 48000 people
Ario de Rosales Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City -
Tacambaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 21000 people
Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Ocotlan 1525 0
Venustiano Carranza 1554 0
Zamora ZMM 1567 Civ. Paved No 4900
Jaujilla 1950 0
Uruapan UPN 1593 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0
El Infiernillo 511 0
Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986
Zicuiran Zicuiran 1957
Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Melchor Ocampo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 10:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (9 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 9 of 24 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Oct 2021 10:00 Melchor Ocampo Mexico  0.5
25 Oct 2021 11:00 Playa Azul Mexico  0.3
25 Oct 2021 06:00 Barrio Nuevo Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 13:00 Las Pinas Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 10:00 Joluta Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 05:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 15:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 08:00 Lagunillas Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 14:00 Chula Mexico  0.1