Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for RICK-21 in Mexico from 22 Oct 2021 15:00 UTC to 23 Oct 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21

in Mexico

23 Oct 2021 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	FL-2021-000166-VNM
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (25 Oct 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 25 Oct 2021 06:00 - 25 Oct 2021 18:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	185 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

185 km/h Current Max.

Up to 870000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	22 Oct 2021 15:00	139	2 million	560 thousand	Mexico
2	22 Oct 2021 21:00	120	9 million	2.8 million	Mexico
3	23 Oct 2021 03:00	148	9.3 million	520 thousand	Mexico
4	23 Oct 2021 09:00	185	8.9 million	870 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	22 Oct 2021 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12.7, -100.5
2	22 Oct 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.1, -101
3	23 Oct 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	13.4, -101.3
4	23 Oct 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	13.9, -101.4
4	23 Oct 2021 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.6, -101.8
4	24 Oct 2021 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	15.3, -102.1
4	24 Oct 2021 18:00	Category 3	185	no people	410000 people	16, -102.3
4	25 Oct 2021 06:00	Category 3	185	37000 people	2.6 million people	17, -102.7
4	25 Oct 2021 18:00	Category 1	148	860000 people	8.7 million people	18.5, -103.1	Mexico
4	26 Oct 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	20.5, -103.5	Mexico
4	27 Oct 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	25, -104	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Michoacan	Mexico
Colima	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Coalcomán	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	10000 people
Tecalitlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	13000 people
Tamazula de Gordiano	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Ciudad Guzmán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Atoyac	Jalisco	Mexico	City	5300 people
Zacoalco de Torres	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Tuxpan		1225	Mil.	Paved	No	6700
Ciudad Guzman		1520				0

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Trojes	Coahuayana	1994

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Las Trojitas, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (11 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 4 of 23 Oct 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	25 Oct 2021 15:00	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.5
	25 Oct 2021 14:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.3
	25 Oct 2021 14:00	Chula	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 14:00	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 12:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 18:00	Maruata	Mexico	0.2
	25 Oct 2021 14:00	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	25 Oct 2021 17:00	Bucerias	Mexico	0.1
	25 Oct 2021 19:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.1
	25 Oct 2021 19:00	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	25 Oct 2021 21:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.