Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SEROJA-21
in Australia, Indonesia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SEROJA-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Australia, Indonesia
Exposed population 60 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.6 m (11 Apr 10:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)
Landfall between
11 Apr 2021 06:00 - 11 Apr 2021 18:00

in Australia

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 148 km/h 1.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 130 km/h 1.6 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 6600 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 157 560 thousand No people Indonesia
Green 2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 185 2 million No people Indonesia
Green 3 05 Apr 2021 06:00 194 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 4 05 Apr 2021 12:00 185 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 157 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 194 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 194 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 194 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 185 1.2 million No people Australia
Green 10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 194 1.3 million 40 thousand Australia
Green 11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 204 1.3 million 1 thousand Australia
Green 12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 204 1.3 million 3 thousand Australia
Green 13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 204 1.4 million 2 thousand Australia
Green 14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 185 1.2 million No people Indonesia
Green 15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 204 1.4 million 1 thousand Australia
Green 16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 194 3.3 million 60 thousand Australia
Green 17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 185 1.3 million 70 thousand Australia
Green 18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 167 1.4 million 40 thousand Australia
Green 19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 157 3.2 million 10 thousand Australia
Green 20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 148 2.9 million 10 thousand Australia
Green 21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 148 1.9 million 30 thousand Australia
Green 22 09 Apr 2021 18:00 148 2 million 7 thousand Australia

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 04 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 65 91000 people no people -10.4, 123.2
GREEN
2 04 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 1.9 million people no people -10.5, 123
GREEN
3 05 Apr 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 280000 people no people -11.1, 121.9
GREEN
4 05 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 190000 people no people -11.2, 121.5
GREEN
5 05 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 190000 people no people -11.2, 121.5
GREEN
6 05 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 140000 people no people -11.3, 120.7
GREEN
7 06 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 37000 people no people -11.5, 120.1
GREEN
8 06 Apr 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -11.5, 118.9
GREEN
9 06 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -11.9, 119.3
GREEN
10 06 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -12.3, 119
GREEN
11 07 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -13.3, 118
GREEN
12 07 Apr 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -14.2, 116.8
GREEN
13 07 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -14.9, 115.9
GREEN
14 07 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -15.6, 114.6
GREEN
15 08 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -15.9, 113.8
GREEN
16 08 Apr 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -17, 111.7
GREEN
17 08 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -17.7, 111.4
GREEN
18 08 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -18.4, 111
GREEN
19 09 Apr 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -19, 110.1
GREEN
20 09 Apr 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -19.7, 109.4
GREEN
21 09 Apr 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -20.2, 108.9
GREEN
22 09 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -20.3, 108.5
GREEN
22 10 Apr 2021 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -21.1, 108.5
GREEN
22 10 Apr 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 6600 people no people -23.1, 109.7
GREEN
22 11 Apr 2021 06:00 Category 1 148 110000 people 6600 people -25.8, 112.2
GREEN
22 11 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 750000 people no people -29.4, 116.5 Australia
GREEN
22 12 Apr 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -36.7, 130.2
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Australia

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Western Australia Australia 1.6 million people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Useless Loop USL unknown 0
Kalbarri KAX unknown 0
Mullewa MXU unknown 0
Morawa MWB 270 Civ. Unpaved Yes 3000

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Bluff Point Coral Sea Islands

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

1.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.2m in Lynton, Australia. This height is estimated for 11 Apr 2021 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (264 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 29 of 11 Apr 2021 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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