Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
GDACS
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (26 Feb 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cocos Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 157 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 185 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

157 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 26 Feb 2021 00:00 148 No people No people
Green 2 26 Feb 2021 12:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
Green 3 27 Feb 2021 00:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 26 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -14.2, 100.4
GREEN
2 26 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 <1000 people no people -14.8, 97
GREEN
3 27 Feb 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -15, 94.7
GREEN
3 27 Feb 2021 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -15.7, 93
GREEN
3 28 Feb 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -16.4, 91.6
GREEN
3 28 Feb 2021 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.9, 90.6
GREEN
3 01 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -17.4, 89.8
GREEN
3 02 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -18, 89.3
GREEN
3 03 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -18.5, 90.3
GREEN
3 04 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -19.3, 92.4
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Losan, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 26 Feb 2021 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (35 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 17 of 06 Mar 2021 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

No content available ..