Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
05 Mar 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Cocos (Keeling) Islands,
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (26 Feb 05:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Low (Cocos Is.)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 74 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 185 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      74 km/h Current Max.

      Up to <1000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 26 Feb 2021 00:00 148 No people No people
        Green 2 26 Feb 2021 12:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 3 27 Feb 2021 00:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 4 27 Feb 2021 12:00 148 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 5 28 Feb 2021 00:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 6 28 Feb 2021 12:00 185 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 7 01 Mar 2021 00:00 167 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 8 01 Mar 2021 12:00 157 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 9 02 Mar 2021 00:00 167 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 10 02 Mar 2021 12:00 167 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 11 03 Mar 2021 00:00 148 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 12 03 Mar 2021 12:00 93 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 13 04 Mar 2021 00:00 102 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 14 04 Mar 2021 12:00 83 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 15 05 Mar 2021 00:00 83 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands
        Green 16 05 Mar 2021 12:00 74 Few people No people Cocos (Keeling) Islands

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 26 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -14.2, 100.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people <1000 people -14.8, 97
          GREEN
          		 3 27 Feb 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -15, 94.7
          GREEN
          		 4 27 Feb 2021 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -16.2, 93.3
          GREEN
          		 5 28 Feb 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.9, 92
          GREEN
          		 6 28 Feb 2021 12:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -17.4, 91.3
          GREEN
          		 7 01 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -17.8, 90.4
          GREEN
          		 8 01 Mar 2021 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -18.3, 89.5
          GREEN
          		 9 02 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.6, 89.5
          GREEN
          		 10 02 Mar 2021 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people -18.7, 89.8
          GREEN
          		 11 03 Mar 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -18.9, 90.9
          GREEN
          		 12 03 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people -19.3, 92.1
          GREEN
          		 13 04 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -20.6, 93.2
          GREEN
          		 14 04 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -21.8, 93.9
          GREEN
          		 15 05 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -23.1, 94.6
          GREEN
          		 16 05 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -24.6, 95.4
          GREEN
          		 16 06 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -25.7, 95.8
          GREEN
          		 16 06 Mar 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -26.7, 96.2
          GREEN
          		 16 07 Mar 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -27.5, 96.2
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Cocos Is.

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Cocos Is. Cocos (Keeling) Islands

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands Capital <1000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Cocos Is CCK 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7900
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.2 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Losan, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 26 Feb 2021 05:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (35 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 16 of 05 Mar 2021 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Losan Indonesia  0.2
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Bulakamba Indonesia  0.2
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Klampok Indonesia  0.2
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Karangroto Indonesia  0.2
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Cilancang Indonesia  0.2
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Tegal Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Pemalang Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Petaroekan Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Sigedang Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Pekalongan Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Sidja Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Kendal Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Mangkang-Kulan Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Semarang Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Wedung Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Kedungmalang Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Bugel Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Karangampel Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Jepara Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 03:00 Tipar Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 03:00 Balubuk Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 04:00 Patrol Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 04:00 Kandanghaur Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 04:00 Cangkring Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 05:00 Indramaju Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 03:00 Kramat Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 03:00 Cengkarengbelakang Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 03:00 Sungaibuntu Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 04:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 04:00 Muaratjilamaja Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 06:00 Karanggondang Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 03:00 Pedes Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 06:00 Karangsari Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 04:00 Ketapang Indonesia  0.1
          26 Feb 2021 04:00 Domas Indonesia  0.1