Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
02 Feb 2021 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (05 Feb 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Low (Australia)
    Landfall between
    31 Jan 2021 12:00 - 31 Jan 2021 18:00
    in Australia

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 83 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 65 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      83 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 93 Few people No people Australia
        Green 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 93 Few people No people Australia
        Green 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 93 4 thousand No people Australia
        Green 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 93 10 thousand No people Australia
        Green 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 102 10 thousand No people Australia
        Green 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 93 60 thousand No people Australia
        Green 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 93 1.9 million No people Australia
        Green 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 83 2.1 million No people Australia

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.4, 121.1
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.3, 119.8 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -20.6, 119 Australia
          GREEN
          		 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -20.6, 119 Australia
          GREEN
          		 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.1, 118.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.5, 117.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.1, 116.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.9, 115.7 Australia
          GREEN
          		 8 02 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -23.9, 114.8 Australia
          GREEN
          		 8 03 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24, 114.4 Australia
          GREEN
          		 8 03 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24, 114.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 8 04 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 8200 people -24.1, 113.7 Australia
          GREEN
          		 8 05 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 51000 people -24.7, 112.7
          GREEN
          		 8 06 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 2.1 million people -27.3, 113
          GREEN
          		 8 07 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -30.7, 113.9
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Australia

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Western Australia Australia

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Geraldton Western Australia Australia City 27000 people
          Northam Western Australia Australia City 5800 people
          Perth Western Australia Australia Major city 1.4 million people
          York Western Australia Australia City -
          Armadale Western Australia Australia City -
          Beverly Western Australia Australia City -
          Byford Western Australia Australia City -
          Medina Western Australia Australia City -
          Rockingham Western Australia Australia City -
          Warnbro Western Australia Australia City -
          Peelhurst Western Australia Australia City -
          Brookton Western Australia Australia City -
          Singleton Western Australia Australia City -
          Mandurah Western Australia Australia City 73000 people
          Falcon Western Australia Australia City -
          Pingelly Western Australia Australia City -
          Pinjarra Western Australia Australia City -
          Dwellingup Western Australia Australia City -
          Waroona Western Australia Australia City -
          Harvey Western Australia Australia City -
          Eaton Western Australia Australia City -
          Bunbury Western Australia Australia City 26000 people
          Collie Western Australia Australia City 6300 people
          Capel Western Australia Australia City -
          Busselton Western Australia Australia City 10000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Exmouth Gulf EXM unknown 0
          Learmonth LEA 6 Mil. Paved Yes 9900
          Gascoyne Junction GSC unknown 0
          Carnarvon CVQ 4 Civ. Paved Yes 5500
          Shark Bay MJK 34 Priv. Paved No 5500
          Useless Loop USL unknown 0
          Kalbarri KAX unknown 0
          Yalgoo YLG unknown 0
          Mullewa MXU unknown 0
          Geraldton GET 37 Civ. Paved Yes 6400
          Morawa MWB 270 Civ. Unpaved Yes 3000
          Dongara DOX unknown 0
          Eneabba ENB unknown 0
          Jurien Bay JUR unknown 0
          Gingin 73 Civ. Paved No 5900
          Pearce 45 Civ. Paved Yes 8000
          Cunderdin 213 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
          Perth International PER 20 Civ. Paved Yes 11200
          Rottnest Island RTS 4 Civ. Paved Yes 4200
          Fremantle Heliport JFM unknown 0
          Perth Jandakot JAD 30 Civ. Paved Yes 4500
          Murray Field 17 0
          Collie CIE unknown 0
          Bunbury BUY 16 Civ. Paved Yes 3300
          Busselton 17 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Margaret River 105 Civ. Paved Yes 3600

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Exmouth AUPEX Coral Sea Islands
          Learmonth Coral Sea Islands
          Maud Landing Coral Sea Islands
          Cape Cuvier Coral Sea Islands
          Carnarvon AUCVQ Coral Sea Islands
          Hamelin Pool Coral Sea Islands
          Denham Coral Sea Islands
          Useless Loop AUUSL Coral Sea Islands
          Bluff Point Coral Sea Islands
          Port Gregory Coral Sea Islands
          Geraldton AUGET Coral Sea Islands
          Dongarra Coral Sea Islands
          Rottnest Island AURTS Coral Sea Islands
          Fremantle AUFRE Coral Sea Islands
          Kwinana AUKWI Coral Sea Islands
          Bunbury AUBUY Coral Sea Islands
          Cape Naturaliste Coral Sea Islands
          Busselton AUBUS Coral Sea Islands

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Mundaring Weir Helena 1959
          Victoria Reservoir New Victoria Munday Brook 1991
          Canning Reservoir Canning Canning 1940
          Wungong Reservoir Wungong Wungong Brook 1979
          Serpentine Reservoir Serpentine Serpentine 1961
          Banksiadale South Dandalup South Dandalup 1974
          Navarino Waroona Drakes Brook 1966
          Brockman Logue Brook Logue Brook 1963
          Stirling Reservoir Stirling Harvey 1948
          Worsley Pipehead 1983
          Wellington Reservoir Wellington Collie 1960
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          1.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Denham, Australia. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2021 23:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (30 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 02 Feb 2021 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Feb 2021 23:00 Denham Australia  1.5
          06 Feb 2021 04:00 Tamala Australia  1.4
          06 Feb 2021 04:00 Useless Loop Australia  1.4
          06 Feb 2021 02:00 Nanga Australia  1.2
          05 Feb 2021 18:00 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.9
          05 Feb 2021 22:00 Shark Bay Australia  0.8
          05 Feb 2021 08:00 Mardie Australia  0.5
          05 Feb 2021 16:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.5
          05 Feb 2021 07:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.4
          05 Feb 2021 08:00 Glenroy Australia  0.4
          05 Feb 2021 08:00 Wickham Australia  0.3
          05 Feb 2021 08:00 Point Samson Australia  0.3
          05 Feb 2021 08:00 Cossack Australia  0.3
          05 Feb 2021 09:00 Learmonth Australia  0.3
          05 Feb 2021 09:00 Quobba Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 09:00 Condon Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 13:00 Derby Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 11:00 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 09:00 Exmouth Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 20:00 Thangoo Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 07:00 Warroora Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 07:00 Cardabia Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 20:00 Broome Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 07:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 08:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 06:00 Carrarang Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 19:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 19:00 Waterbank Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 11:00 Pender Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 12:00 Kollan I Australia  0.1