Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for EIGHTEEN-21 in Australia from 31 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC to 01 Feb 2021 00:00 UTC

01 Feb 2021 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	65 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (02 Feb 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)
Landfall	between 31 Jan 2021 18:00 - 01 Feb 2021 00:00 in Australia

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	65 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 3500 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 12:00	93	Few people	No people	Australia
2	31 Jan 2021 18:00	93	Few people	No people	Australia
3	01 Feb 2021 00:00	93	4 thousand	No people	Australia

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21.4, 121.1
2	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21.3, 119.8	Australia
3	01 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-20.6, 119	Australia
3	01 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-21, 117.1	Australia
3	02 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	4100 people	-21.6, 115.2	Australia
3	02 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	3500 people	-22.3, 113.8	Australia
3	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-22.4, 112.7
3	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-22.3, 111.2
3	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-23.6, 109.9
3	06 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-26.1, 110

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Australia

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Western Australia	Australia

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Exmouth	Western Australia	Australia	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Learmonth	LEA	6	Mil.	Paved	Yes	9900
Exmouth Gulf	EXM	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Port Exmouth		Coral Sea Islands
Exmouth	AUPEX	Coral Sea Islands
Learmonth		Coral Sea Islands
Maud Landing		Coral Sea Islands

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Learmonth, Australia. This height is estimated for 02 Feb 2021 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (31 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 3 of 01 Feb 2021 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Learmonth	Australia	0.7
	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Mardie	Australia	0.6
	02 Feb 2021 15:00	Wickham	Australia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 15:00	Point Samson	Australia	0.5
	02 Feb 2021 15:00	Cossack	Australia	0.5
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	East Lewis I	Australia	0.4
	04 Feb 2021 07:00	Glenroy	Australia	0.4
	02 Feb 2021 16:00	Condon	Australia	0.4
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Denham	Australia	0.4
	04 Feb 2021 03:00	Exmouth	Australia	0.3
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Useless Loop	Australia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Derby	Australia	0.3
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Dirk Hartog	Australia	0.3
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Carrarang	Australia	0.3
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Tamala	Australia	0.3
	04 Feb 2021 01:00	Ah Chong I	Australia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Broome	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Shark Bay	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Nanga	Australia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Waterbank	Australia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 13:00	Bundera Bundera	Australia	0.2
	05 Feb 2021 00:00	Carnarvon	Australia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Pender	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 19:00	Quobba	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 15:00	Cape Cuvier	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Ningaloo	Australia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 17:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 13:00	Gnaraloo	Australia	0.1
	04 Feb 2021 13:00	Cardabia	Australia	0.1