Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
03 Feb 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.3 m (05 Feb 17:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Low (Australia)
    Landfall between
    05 Feb 2021 00:00 - 05 Feb 2021 12:00
    in Australia

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 74 km/h 1.3 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 65 km/h 1.3 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      74 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 47000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 93 Few people No people Australia
        Green 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 93 Few people No people Australia
        Green 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 93 4 thousand No people Australia
        Green 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 93 10 thousand No people Australia
        Green 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 102 10 thousand No people Australia
        Green 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 93 60 thousand No people Australia
        Green 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 93 1.9 million No people Australia
        Green 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 83 2.1 million No people Australia
        Green 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 83 1.9 million No people Australia
        Green 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 74 1.2 million No people Australia
        Green 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 65 5 thousand No people Australia
        Green 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 65 8 thousand No people Australia
        Green 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 74 50 thousand No people Australia

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.4, 121.1
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.3, 119.8 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -20.6, 119 Australia
          GREEN
          		 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -20.6, 119 Australia
          GREEN
          		 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.1, 118.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.5, 117.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.1, 116.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.9, 115.7 Australia
          GREEN
          		 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -23.6, 115.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24.2, 114.5 Australia
          GREEN
          		 11 03 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -23.7, 114.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 12 03 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -23.9, 114.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 13 03 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -23.9, 114.5 Australia
          GREEN
          		 13 04 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24.1, 114.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 13 04 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 5800 people -24.5, 113.6 Australia
          GREEN
          		 13 05 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 6500 people -25, 113.2
          GREEN
          		 13 05 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 47000 people -25.7, 113 Australia
          GREEN
          		 13 06 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -28.8, 113.5
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Australia

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Western Australia Australia

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Geraldton Western Australia Australia City 27000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Carnarvon CVQ 4 Civ. Paved Yes 5500
          Shark Bay MJK 34 Priv. Paved No 5500
          Useless Loop USL unknown 0
          Kalbarri KAX unknown 0
          Geraldton GET 37 Civ. Paved Yes 6400

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cape Cuvier Coral Sea Islands
          Carnarvon AUCVQ Coral Sea Islands
          Denham Coral Sea Islands
          Hamelin Pool Coral Sea Islands
          Useless Loop AUUSL Coral Sea Islands
          Bluff Point Coral Sea Islands
          Port Gregory Coral Sea Islands
          Geraldton AUGET Coral Sea Islands
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          1.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.3m in Denham, Australia. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2021 17:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (37 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 03 Feb 2021 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          05 Feb 2021 17:00 Denham Australia  1.3
          05 Feb 2021 22:00 Tamala Australia  1.0
          05 Feb 2021 22:00 Carrarang Australia  1.0
          05 Feb 2021 22:00 Useless Loop Australia  1.0
          05 Feb 2021 21:00 Nanga Australia  0.9
          05 Feb 2021 14:00 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.7
          05 Feb 2021 16:00 Shark Bay Australia  0.7
          04 Feb 2021 23:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.4
          05 Feb 2021 12:00 Glenroy Australia  0.3
          05 Feb 2021 12:00 Mardie Australia  0.3
          05 Feb 2021 10:00 Learmonth Australia  0.3
          04 Feb 2021 21:00 Quobba Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 13:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 21:00 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 13:00 Wickham Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 13:00 Point Samson Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 13:00 Cossack Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 15:00 Derby Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 13:00 Thangoo Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 22:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
          05 Feb 2021 13:00 Condon Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 23:00 Cardabia Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 23:00 Warroora Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 13:00 Broome Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 08:00 Kalbarri Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 10:00 Exmouth Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 12:00 Geraldton Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 12:00 Drummond Cove Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 12:00 Popes Landing Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 12:00 Waggrakine Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 11:00 Gregory Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 12:00 Lynton Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 12:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 12:00 Waterbank Australia  0.1
          05 Feb 2021 12:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 12:00 Horrocks Australia  0.1
          04 Feb 2021 23:00 Ningaloo Australia  0.1