Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for EIGHTEEN-21
in Australia
02 Feb 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone EIGHTEEN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.5 m (06 Feb 06:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Low (Australia)
    Landfall between
    31 Jan 2021 12:00 - 31 Jan 2021 18:00
    in Australia

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 74 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 65 km/h 1.5 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      74 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 1.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 93 Few people No people Australia
        Green 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 93 Few people No people Australia
        Green 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 93 4 thousand No people Australia
        Green 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 93 10 thousand No people Australia
        Green 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 102 10 thousand No people Australia
        Green 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 93 60 thousand No people Australia
        Green 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 93 1.9 million No people Australia
        Green 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 83 2.1 million No people Australia
        Green 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 83 1.9 million No people Australia
        Green 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 74 1.2 million No people Australia

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 31 Jan 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.4, 121.1
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Jan 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.3, 119.8 Australia
          GREEN
          		 3 01 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -20.6, 119 Australia
          GREEN
          		 4 01 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -20.6, 119 Australia
          GREEN
          		 5 01 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.1, 118.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -21.5, 117.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 7 02 Feb 2021 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.1, 116.2 Australia
          GREEN
          		 8 02 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -22.9, 115.7 Australia
          GREEN
          		 9 02 Feb 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -23.6, 115.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 10 02 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24.2, 114.5 Australia
          GREEN
          		 10 03 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24.5, 114.1 Australia
          GREEN
          		 10 03 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -24.4, 113.7 Australia
          GREEN
          		 10 04 Feb 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 5700 people -24.4, 113.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 10 04 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 6400 people -24.7, 112.8
          GREEN
          		 10 05 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 50000 people -26.2, 112.6
          GREEN
          		 10 06 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.2 million people -29.3, 113.2
          GREEN
          		 10 07 Feb 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -32.6, 113.9
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Australia

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Western Australia Australia

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Geraldton Western Australia Australia City 27000 people
          Medina Western Australia Australia City -
          Rockingham Western Australia Australia City -
          Warnbro Western Australia Australia City -
          Peelhurst Western Australia Australia City -
          Singleton Western Australia Australia City -
          Mandurah Western Australia Australia City 73000 people
          Falcon Western Australia Australia City -
          Pinjarra Western Australia Australia City -
          Eaton Western Australia Australia City -
          Bunbury Western Australia Australia City 26000 people
          Capel Western Australia Australia City -
          Busselton Western Australia Australia City 10000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Carnarvon CVQ 4 Civ. Paved Yes 5500
          Shark Bay MJK 34 Priv. Paved No 5500
          Useless Loop USL unknown 0
          Kalbarri KAX unknown 0
          Geraldton GET 37 Civ. Paved Yes 6400
          Dongara DOX unknown 0
          Eneabba ENB unknown 0
          Jurien Bay JUR unknown 0
          Rottnest Island RTS 4 Civ. Paved Yes 4200
          Fremantle Heliport JFM unknown 0
          Perth Jandakot JAD 30 Civ. Paved Yes 4500
          Murray Field 17 0
          Bunbury BUY 16 Civ. Paved Yes 3300
          Busselton 17 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
          Margaret River 105 Civ. Paved Yes 3600

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cape Cuvier Coral Sea Islands
          Carnarvon AUCVQ Coral Sea Islands
          Denham Coral Sea Islands
          Useless Loop AUUSL Coral Sea Islands
          Bluff Point Coral Sea Islands
          Port Gregory Coral Sea Islands
          Geraldton AUGET Coral Sea Islands
          Dongarra Coral Sea Islands
          Rottnest Island AURTS Coral Sea Islands
          Fremantle AUFRE Coral Sea Islands
          Kwinana AUKWI Coral Sea Islands
          Bunbury AUBUY Coral Sea Islands
          Cape Naturaliste Coral Sea Islands
          Busselton AUBUS Coral Sea Islands
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          1.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.5m in Tamala, Australia. This height is estimated for 06 Feb 2021 06:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (44 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 02 Feb 2021 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          06 Feb 2021 06:00 Tamala Australia  1.5
          06 Feb 2021 05:00 Useless Loop Australia  1.4
          06 Feb 2021 06:00 Denham Australia  1.3
          06 Feb 2021 04:00 Nanga Australia  1.2
          06 Feb 2021 07:00 Shark Bay Australia  0.8
          05 Feb 2021 15:00 Dirk Hartog Australia  0.7
          06 Feb 2021 08:00 Carnarvon Australia  0.4
          06 Feb 2021 10:00 Kalbarri Australia  0.4
          06 Feb 2021 15:00 Gregory Australia  0.4
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Waggrakine Australia  0.3
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Geraldton Australia  0.3
          06 Feb 2021 15:00 Lynton Australia  0.3
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Drummond Cove Australia  0.3
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Popes Landing Australia  0.3
          04 Feb 2021 16:00 Quobba Australia  0.3
          06 Feb 2021 17:00 Horrocks Australia  0.3
          04 Feb 2021 16:00 Cape Cuvier Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 05:00 Carrarang Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 16:00 Gnaraloo Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 18:00 Learmonth Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Denison Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Port Denison Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Dongara Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 06:00 Mardie Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 17:00 Warroora Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Illawong Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Greenough Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 09:00 Derby Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 06:00 Glenroy Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 07:00 East Lewis I Australia  0.2
          04 Feb 2021 17:00 Cardabia Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 12:00 Thangoo Australia  0.2
          06 Feb 2021 07:00 Wickham Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 07:00 Point Samson Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 07:00 Cossack Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 12:00 Broome Australia  0.1
          04 Feb 2021 19:00 Exmouth Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 09:00 Condon Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 11:00 Waterbank Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Green Head Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 11:00 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Leeman Australia  0.1
          06 Feb 2021 18:00 Coolimba Australia  0.1
          04 Feb 2021 17:00 Ningaloo Australia  0.1