Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HEROLD-20
in Mauritius, Madagascar

Impact

Tropical Cyclone HEROLD-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mauritius, Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 185 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Mar 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 56 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 185 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

56 km/h Current

Up to 620000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 13 Mar 2020 06:00 148 1.3 million No people Mauritius
Green 2 13 Mar 2020 18:00 194 1.3 million No people Madagascar, Mauritius
Green 3 14 Mar 2020 06:00 185 1.9 million No people Madagascar, Mauritius
Green 4 14 Mar 2020 18:00 185 630 thousand No people Madagascar, Mauritius
Green 5 15 Mar 2020 06:00 176 630 thousand No people Madagascar, Mauritius
Green 6 15 Mar 2020 18:00 185 630 thousand No people Madagascar, Mauritius
Green 7 16 Mar 2020 06:00 167 630 thousand No people Madagascar, Mauritius
Green 8 16 Mar 2020 18:00 148 630 thousand No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 9 17 Mar 2020 06:00 185 630 thousand No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 10 17 Mar 2020 18:00 130 630 thousand No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 11 18 Mar 2020 06:00 102 630 thousand No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 12 18 Mar 2020 18:00 83 630 thousand No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 13 19 Mar 2020 06:00 74 630 thousand No people Mauritius, Madagascar
Green 14 19 Mar 2020 18:00 56 630 thousand No people Mauritius, Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 13 Mar 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -14.3, 52.4
GREEN
2 13 Mar 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 83 3500 people no people -14.7, 52 Madagascar
GREEN
3 14 Mar 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 111 580000 people no people -15.1, 50.9 Madagascar
GREEN
4 14 Mar 2020 18:00 Category 1 120 390000 people no people -15, 51.1 Madagascar
GREEN
5 15 Mar 2020 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -15.1, 51.8
GREEN
6 15 Mar 2020 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -15.3, 52.7
GREEN
7 16 Mar 2020 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -15.7, 54.2
GREEN
8 16 Mar 2020 18:00 Category 1 148 no people no people -16.8, 56.8
GREEN
9 17 Mar 2020 06:00 Category 3 185 44000 people no people -19.1, 60.4 Mauritius
GREEN
10 17 Mar 2020 18:00 Category 1 130 44000 people no people -21, 63.5 Mauritius
GREEN
11 18 Mar 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -22.7, 66.1
GREEN
12 18 Mar 2020 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -24.7, 69.2
GREEN
13 19 Mar 2020 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -25.4, 71.1
GREEN
14 19 Mar 2020 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -26.6, 73
GREEN
14 20 Mar 2020 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people -28.3, 74.5
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mauritius
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Mauritius Mauritius 1 million people
Toamasina Madagascar 1.8 million people
Antsiranana Madagascar 810000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Antalaha Antsiranana Madagascar City 34000 people
Maroantsetra Toamasina Madagascar City 23000 people
Sambava Antsiranana Madagascar City 31000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Rodrigues Plaine Corail RRG 40 Civ. Paved Yes 3300
Antalaha Antsirabato ANM 6 Civ. Paved No 3900
Maroantsetra WMN 4 Civ. Paved No 4200
Sambava SVB 6 Civ. Paved No 5900

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Port Mathurin Mauritius
Antataha MGANM Madagascar
Maroantsetra MGWMN Madagascar
Sambava MGSVB Madagascar

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Maroantsetra, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 13 Mar 2020 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (68 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 19 Mar 2020 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2020 07:00 Ambohitralanana Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 10:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 10:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2020 07:00 Ratsianarana Madagascar  0.2
14 Mar 2020 07:00 Ambodivato Madagascar  0.2
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Manakalana Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Analanampotsy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Ampasimbe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2020 06:00 Ambalabe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Antakobola Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 10:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Mahavanona Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Ampasina Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2020 06:00 Antanjokatafana Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Fararano Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 12:00 Ambanisanjo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Antsorokaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 12:00 Ambatobe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Bobasakoa Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Lohatrozona Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 10:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2020 06:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Ampanakana Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Fandrarazana Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Vatobe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Vohilava Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Ambodifototra Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Lonkintsy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 08:00 Lokintsy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 11:00 Tanambe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 11:00 Ambodiatafa Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Ambodimanga Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2020 06:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2020 06:00 Antsirabato Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2020 06:00 Anjahamarina Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Manambato Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2020 06:00 Ampanavoana Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2020 09:00 Antanetilava Madagascar  0.1