Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for NARDA-19
in Mexico
29 Sep 2019 18 UTC
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  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NARDA-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
    Maximum storm surge n.a.
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 65 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
    Overall 83 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      65 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 15.9 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 28 Sep 2019 12:00 74 2.1 million No people Mexico
        Green 2 28 Sep 2019 18:00 74 10.2 million No people Mexico
        Green 3 29 Sep 2019 00:00 74 4.8 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 29 Sep 2019 06:00 83 6.1 million No people Mexico
        Green 5 29 Sep 2019 12:00 74 8.2 million No people Mexico
        Green 6 29 Sep 2019 18:00 65 15.9 million No people Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 28 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.5, -100
          GREEN
          		 2 28 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 1.5 million people 14.6, -99.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 3 29 Sep 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 2 million people 15.1, -100.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 4 29 Sep 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 1.7 million people 15.7, -100.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 5 29 Sep 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 5.5 million people 17.4, -101.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 6 29 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 11.3 million people 18.7, -103 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 6 30 Sep 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 20.8, -105.2 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 6 30 Sep 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 23, -106.9 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Oct 2019 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 850000 people 24.7, -108.4 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 6 01 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 2.8 million people 25.7, -109.5 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 6 02 Oct 2019 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 28.5, -110.5 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Michoacan Mexico
          Jalisco Mexico
          Colima Mexico
          Guerrero Mexico
          Mexico Mexico
          Nayarit Mexico
          Zacatecas Mexico
          Sinaloa Mexico
          Sonora Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
          Apatzingan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 94000 people
          Tecalitlán Jalisco Mexico City 13000 people
          Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people
          Colima Colima Mexico Major city 130000 people
          Armería Colima Mexico City 16000 people
          Tamazula de Gordiano Jalisco Mexico City -
          Ciudad Guzmán Jalisco Mexico City -
          Cotija Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 14000 people
          Uruapan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 240000 people
          Manzanillo Colima Mexico City 110000 people
          Jiquilpan Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 26000 people
          Sayula Jalisco Mexico City 25000 people
          Ario de Rosales Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City -
          Sauhayo Michoacan de Ocampo Mexico City -
          Atoyac Jalisco Mexico City 5300 people
          Zamora Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 120000 people
          Pátzcuaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 48000 people
          Tacambaro Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 21000 people
          Chapala Jalisco Mexico City 20000 people
          Zacoalco de Torres Jalisco Mexico City -
          La Barca Jalisco Mexico City 34000 people
          Ocotlán Jalisco Mexico City 78000 people
          Autlán Jalisco Mexico City 40000 people
          Cocula Jalisco Mexico City 14000 people
          Guadalajara Jalisco Mexico Major city 1.6 million people
          Huetamo Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 22000 people
          Petatlán Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Ameca Jalisco Mexico City 35000 people
          Ahulalulco de Mercado Jalisco Mexico City -
          Coyuca de Catalán Guerrero Mexico City -
          Amatitán Jalisco Mexico City 9400 people
          Etzatlán Jalisco Mexico City 13000 people
          Talpa de Allende Jalisco Mexico City -
          Ixtlán del Río Nayarit Mexico City 21000 people
          Tecpan Guerrero Mexico City 14000 people
          Ahuacatlán Nayarit Mexico City 6300 people
          Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 190000 people
          Atoyac Guerrero Mexico City 20000 people
          Compostela Nayarit Mexico City 16000 people
          Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
          Tepic Nayarit Mexico Major city 280000 people
          Acapulco Guerrero Mexico Major city 640000 people
          Santiago Ixcuintla Nayarit Mexico City -
          Tuxpan Nayarit Mexico City 23000 people
          San Marcos Guerrero Mexico City 12000 people
          Guasave Sinaloa Mexico City 68000 people
          Los Mochis Sinaloa Mexico City 210000 people
          Ahome Sonora Mexico City 11000 people
          El Fuerte Sinaloa Mexico City 11000 people
          Huatabampo Sonora Mexico City 30000 people
          Navojoa Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
          Rosario Sonora Mexico City -
          Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City -
          Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people
          Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people
          Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
          Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 590000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Coahuayana 61 0
          Pablo L Sidar AZG 315 0
          Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          Tuxpan 1225 Mil. Paved No 6700
          Lazaro Cardenas LZC 12 Civ. Paved No 4900
          El Infiernillo 511 0
          Ciudad Guzman 1520 0
          Uruapan UPN 1593 Civ. Paved Yes 7800
          Venustiano Carranza 1554 0
          Zamora ZMM 1567 Civ. Paved No 4900
          Playa de Oro International ZLO 8 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
          Autlan 884 0
          Jaujilla 1950 0
          Ocotlan 1525 0
          Ixtapa Zihuatanejo International ZIH 6 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
          Miguel Hidal GDL 1528 Civ. Paved Yes 13100
          Huetamo 300 0
          Zapopan ZAP 1625 0
          Santa Barbara 299 0
          La Gloria 34 0
          Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
          El Llano 12 0
          Tepic TPQ 960 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          Pie de la Cuesta 6 0
          San Blas 3 0
          Alvarez International ACA 5 Civ. Paved Yes 10800
          Campo Cuatro Milpas 28 0
          Los Mochis LMM 4 Civ. Paved Yes 6500
          Los Cerritos Northeast 17 0
          El Fuerte 75 0
          Alamos XAL 400 0
          Navojoa New 38 0
          Navojoa 60 0
          Villa Juarez South 46 0
          Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
          General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700
          Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Lazaro Cardenas MXLZC Mexico
          Manzanillo MXZLO Mexico
          Chamela Mexico
          El Tabaco Mexico
          Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
          Ipala Mexico
          Acapulco MXACA Mexico
          Puerto Marques Mexico
          San Blas MXSBS Mexico
          Topolobampo MXTPB Mexico
          Yavaros Mexico
          Guaymas MXGYM Mexico
          Empalme Mexico

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Trojes Coahuayana 1994
          Chilatan Tepalcatepec 1986
          Jose M. Morelos Balsas 1968
          Zicuiran Zicuiran 1957
          Inhernillo El Infiernillo Balsas 1963
          Basilio Vadillo Basilio Vadillo San Migue 1973
          Trigomil Ayuquila 1993
          Tacotan Amuquila 1958
          Puente Calderon Calderon 1991
          La Vega Teuchitlan 1956
          El Gallo Cutzamala 1985
          Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976
          Corrinchis Mascota 1977
          Andres Figueroa Ajuchitlan 1983
          Vicente Guerrero Poliutla 1968
          Carlos Ramirez Ulloa Balsas 1986
          Agua Milpa Agua Milpa Santiago 1994
          Presa Josefa Ortiz de Dominguez Alamos 1967
          Mocuzari Adolfo Ruiz Cortines Rio Mayo 1955
          Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952
          Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970
          Abelardo Sonora 1948
          El Molini Sonora 1991
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.