Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for LORENA-19 in Mexico from 17 Sep 2019 15:00 UTC to 22 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	370 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	n.a.
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	n.a.	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.0 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 12:00	102	290 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	17 Sep 2019 18:00	102	1.2 million	No people	Mexico
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	111	710 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	18 Sep 2019 06:00	120	740 thousand	No people	Mexico
5	18 Sep 2019 12:00	130	1.9 million	70 thousand	Mexico
6	18 Sep 2019 18:00	157	830 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	19 Sep 2019 00:00	148	1.6 million	20 thousand	Mexico
8	19 Sep 2019 06:00	120	2.5 million	120 thousand	Mexico
9	19 Sep 2019 12:00	148	2.5 million	120 thousand	Mexico
10	19 Sep 2019 18:00	130	2.5 million	240 thousand	Mexico
11	20 Sep 2019 00:00	120	2.5 million	340 thousand	Mexico
12	20 Sep 2019 06:00	130	2.1 million	120 thousand	Mexico
13	20 Sep 2019 12:00	130	2.1 million	220 thousand	Mexico
14	20 Sep 2019 18:00	139	2.5 million	210 thousand	Mexico
15	21 Sep 2019 00:00	130	2.8 million	130 thousand	Mexico
16	21 Sep 2019 06:00	120	3.5 million	370 thousand	Mexico
17	21 Sep 2019 12:00	120	3.6 million	370 thousand	Mexico
18	21 Sep 2019 18:00	83	2.6 million	370 thousand	Mexico
19	22 Sep 2019 00:00	74	2.6 million	370 thousand	Mexico
20	22 Sep 2019 06:00	56	2.5 million	370 thousand	Mexico
21	22 Sep 2019 12:00	46	2.5 million	370 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	17 Sep 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.3, -99.6
2	17 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.1, -100.8
3	18 Sep 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.7, -101.7
4	18 Sep 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.7, -102.6
5	18 Sep 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	890000 people	17, -103.2	Mexico
6	18 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	590000 people	17.6, -104	Mexico
7	19 Sep 2019 00:00	Category 1	120	17000 people	1.3 million people	18.3, -104.4	Mexico
8	19 Sep 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	110000 people	1.6 million people	19.3, -104.8	Mexico
9	19 Sep 2019 12:00	Tropical storm	111	13000 people	760000 people	20.2, -105.5	Mexico
10	19 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6400 people	21.4, -106.7	Mexico
11	20 Sep 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6300 people	22, -107.3	Mexico
12	20 Sep 2019 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	280000 people	22.2, -108.2	Mexico
13	20 Sep 2019 12:00	Category 1	120	98000 people	310000 people	22.6, -108.9	Mexico
14	20 Sep 2019 18:00	Category 1	139	78000 people	570000 people	23, -109.3	Mexico
15	21 Sep 2019 00:00	Category 1	130	9400 people	450000 people	23.7, -109.5	Mexico
16	21 Sep 2019 06:00	Category 1	120	230000 people	290000 people	24.2, -110.2	Mexico
17	21 Sep 2019 12:00	Category 1	120	<1000 people	30000 people	25.1, -110.5	Mexico
18	21 Sep 2019 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	210000 people	26.2, -111	Mexico
19	22 Sep 2019 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	230000 people	27.1, -111.1	Mexico
20	22 Sep 2019 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	27.8, -111.4	Mexico
21	22 Sep 2019 12:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	28.4, -111.5	Mexico
21	23 Sep 2019 00:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	30, -111.5	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Sonora	Mexico
Baja California Sur	Mexico
Nayarit	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico
Colima	Mexico
Michoacan	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Guaymas	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people
Punta Mita	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Compostela	Nayarit	Mexico	City	16000 people
Puerto Vallarta	Jalisco	Mexico	City	190000 people
Talpa de Allende	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Autlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	40000 people
Manzanillo	Colima	Mexico	City	110000 people
Colima	Colima	Mexico	Major city	130000 people
Armería	Colima	Mexico	City	16000 people
Tecomán	Colima	Mexico	City	75000 people
Coalcomán	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	10000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
General Jose Maria Yanez International	GYM	27	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7700
Loreto	LTO	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
La Paz		26				0
Leon	LAP	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
Punta Pescadero		7				0
Punta Colorada	PCO	unknown				0
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Cabo San Lucas		139				0
Isla Maria Madre		5				0
San Blas		3				0
El Llano		12				0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International	PVR	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10100
La Gloria		34				0
Autlan		884				0
Playa de Oro International	ZLO	8	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Colima	CLQ	723	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7500
Coahuayana		61				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Guaymas	MXGYM	Mexico
Loreto		Mexico
Bahia Salinas		Mexico
San Juan de la Costa	MXSJC	Mexico
La Paz		Mexico
Buenavista		Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico
San Blas	MXSBS	Mexico
Puerto Vallarta	MXPVR	Mexico
Ipala		Mexico
El Tabaco		Mexico
Chamela		Mexico
Manzanillo	MXZLO	Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Corrinchis	Mascota	1977
	Cajon de Peda	Tomatlan	1976
	Tacotan	Amuquila	1958
	Trigomil	Ayuquila	1993
Basilio Vadillo	Basilio Vadillo	San Migue	1973
	Trojes	Coahuayana	1994

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.