Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FERNAND-19
in Mexico
GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
Impact all weather systems in the area
.

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FERNAND-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 102 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (04 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 46 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 102 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

46 km/h Current

Up to 1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 03 Sep 2019 09:00 74 110 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 03 Sep 2019 15:00 74 150 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 03 Sep 2019 21:00 83 970 thousand No people Mexico
Green 4 04 Sep 2019 03:00 102 1.5 million No people Mexico
Green 5 04 Sep 2019 09:00 83 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 6 04 Sep 2019 15:00 74 1.2 million No people Mexico
Green 7 04 Sep 2019 21:00 56 1.1 million No people Mexico
Green 8 05 Sep 2019 03:00 46 1.1 million No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 03 Sep 2019 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 23.5, -94.3
GREEN
2 03 Sep 2019 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 23.6, -94.9
GREEN
3 03 Sep 2019 21:00 Tropical storm 65 25000 people no people 23.4, -95.9 Mexico
GREEN
4 04 Sep 2019 03:00 Tropical storm 83 1.1 million people no people 23.2, -96.4 Mexico
GREEN
5 04 Sep 2019 09:00 Tropical storm 83 1.7 million people no people 23.1, -96.8 Mexico
GREEN
6 04 Sep 2019 15:00 Tropical storm 74 310000 people no people 24.2, -97.3 Mexico
GREEN
7 04 Sep 2019 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 24.4, -98.3 Mexico
GREEN
8 05 Sep 2019 03:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 25, -99 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Tamaulipas Mexico 2.2 million people
Nuevo Leon Mexico 3.3 million people
Veracruz Mexico 6.7 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Abasolo Tamaulipas Mexico City 6600 people 123 km
Cuauhtemoc Tamaulipas Mexico City 5600 people 286 km
Tampico Tamaulipas Mexico Major city 300000 people 329 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
San Fernando 49 0 86 km
La Retama Southwest 608 0 116 km
Nuevo Dolores 146 0 120 km
El Mezquite 5 0 127 km
Carvajal 7 0 139 km
Rancho Marina Vieja 30 0 169 km
La Pesca 5 0 182 km
Gen Francisco J Mina International TAM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 8300 322 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Altamira Mexico 304 km
Ciudad Madero Mexico 319 km
Tampico MXTAM Mexico 328 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Adjuntas Vincente Guerrero Soto la Marina 1971 120 km
Animas Guayalejo 1978 332 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in San Jose de los Leones, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (96 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 04 Sep 2019 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Sep 2019 18:00 San Jose de los Leones Mexico  0.7
04 Sep 2019 18:00 El Porvenir Mexico  0.7
04 Sep 2019 19:00 Los Ebanos Mexico  0.6
04 Sep 2019 17:00 El Mezquital Mexico  0.4
04 Sep 2019 10:00 La Pesca Mexico  0.4
04 Sep 2019 10:00 Los Pericos Mexico  0.3
04 Sep 2019 10:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  0.3
04 Sep 2019 10:00 El Tular Mexico  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Holly Beach United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Laguna Vista United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Port Isabel United States  0.3
04 Sep 2019 19:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 19:00 Palacios United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 10:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 10:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:00 South Padre Island United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Boca Chica United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Estes United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Spanish Village United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Rockport United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Copano Village United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Fulton United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:00 Yarborough United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 17:00 Port Aransas United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 10:00 La Presita Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Nadeau United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Texas City United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Virginia Point United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Fort Travis United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Flake United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Elmgrove United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 10:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 10:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 10:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 16:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Matagorda United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Chinquapin United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Balantanche Mexico  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Gulf Park United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Hoskins United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Valasco Heights United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Freeport United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Mims United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Hoskins United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 05:00 Port Morris United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Red Fish Cove United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:00 Bay Harbor United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:00 Sea Isle United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Galveston United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:00 High Island United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Quintana United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Surfside United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 13:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 14:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:00 Patton United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:00 Caplen United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 15:00 Gilchrist United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 02:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 02:00 Constance Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 02:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 02:00 Holly Beach United States  0.2
04 Sep 2019 18:00 Bryan Beach United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 02:00 Cameron United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 07:00 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 02:00 Oak Grove United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 02:00 Grand Chenier United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:00 Seybaplaya Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:00 Champoton Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:00 Haltunchen Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 12:00 Celestum Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 10:00 La Mata Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 10:00 Agua Dulce Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 12:00 Sisal Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 08:00 El Naranjal Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 17:00 Cheniere Au Tigre United States  0.1
04 Sep 2019 03:00 Hoquel Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Sabancuy Mexico  0.1
04 Sep 2019 06:00 Noham Mexico  0.1