Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GELENA-19
in Mauritius

Impact

Tropical Cyclone GELENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mauritius
Exposed population 40 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 259 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (06 Feb 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mauritius)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 241 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 259 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

241 km/h Current

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 06 Feb 2019 00:00 148 40 thousand 40 thousand Mauritius
Green 2 06 Feb 2019 06:00 139 40 thousand 40 thousand Mauritius
Green 3 06 Feb 2019 12:00 148 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 4 06 Feb 2019 18:00 204 40 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 5 07 Feb 2019 00:00 250 50 thousand No people Mauritius
Green 6 07 Feb 2019 06:00 241 130 thousand No people Mauritius

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 06 Feb 2019 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people -12.4, 53.7
GREEN
2 06 Feb 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -12.1, 53.4
GREEN
3 06 Feb 2019 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people -12.3, 53.4
GREEN
4 06 Feb 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -12.4, 53.1
GREEN
5 07 Feb 2019 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people -12.5, 53.1
GREEN
6 07 Feb 2019 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people -12.5, 53.4
GREEN
6 07 Feb 2019 18:00 Category 2 157 no people no people -12.9, 53.8
GREEN
6 08 Feb 2019 06:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -14.4, 54.9
GREEN
6 08 Feb 2019 18:00 Category 4 222 83000 people no people -16.4, 57 Mauritius
GREEN
6 09 Feb 2019 06:00 Category 4 241 43000 people no people -18.5, 59.8 Mauritius
GREEN
6 10 Feb 2019 06:00 Category 3 185 no people no people -21.5, 65.6
GREEN
6 11 Feb 2019 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people -24.4, 70.1
GREEN
6 12 Feb 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people -26.3, 74.4
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in La Ferme, Mauritius. This height is estimated for 10 Feb 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (40 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 35 of 14 Feb 2019 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Feb 2019 00:00 La Ferme Mauritius  0.4
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Manambia Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Anantoraka Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Maroantsetra Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Andranofotsy Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Voloina Madagascar  0.3
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Mahalevona Madagascar  0.3
10 Feb 2019 00:00 Port Mathurin Mauritius  0.3
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Rantabe Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Ambanizana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Benjana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Maintimbato Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Anoromby Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Fananehana Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Antalavia Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 01:00 Ankazomalemy Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Ilomotro Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Andohonko Madagascar  0.2
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Manambolosy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Rantranavona Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Fahambahy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Tampolo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Andilamboahangy Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Fampotabe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Mananara Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Ivontaka Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Ambatoharana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Vinanivao Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Anaovandrano Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Anjanozana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 01:00 Fadrina Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 04:00 Soanierana Ivongo Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 04:00 Andrangazaha Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 04:00 Manompana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Ambatofitarafana Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 03:00 Seranambe Madagascar  0.1
06 Feb 2019 06:00 Anse Volbert Village Seychelles  0.1
06 Feb 2019 06:00 La Reunion Seychelles  0.1
06 Feb 2019 04:00 Antanambe Madagascar  0.1