Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PENNY-18
in Australia, Papua New Guinea
31 Dec 2018 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone PENNY-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Australia, Papua New Guinea
    Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 120 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 1.4 m (01 Jan 17:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability High (Papua New Guinea)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 102 km/h 1.4 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 120 km/h 1.4 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      102 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 250000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 102 330 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea
        Green 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 102 250 thousand No people Australia, Papua New Guinea

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 31 Dec 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 18000 people -12.8, 139.6 Australia
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Dec 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 7400 people -12.5, 139.3 Australia
          GREEN
          		 2 31 Dec 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 20000 people -12.4, 139.7 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 2 01 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 24000 people -12.5, 140.9 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 2 01 Jan 2019 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people 210000 people -12.9, 142.5 Australia
          GREEN
          		 2 02 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 250000 people -13.4, 144.7 Papua New Guinea
          GREEN
          		 2 03 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people <1000 people -14.9, 150
          GREEN
          		 2 04 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people -16.6, 153
          GREEN
          		 2 05 Jan 2019 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people -18, 152.1
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Australia
          Papua New Guinea

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Queensland Australia
          Northern Territory Australia
          Western Papua New Guinea
          Milne Bay Papua New Guinea

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Weipa Queensland Australia City -
          Cooktown Queensland Australia City -
          Mareeba Queensland Australia City 8400 people
          Atherton Queensland Australia City 6900 people
          Cairns Queensland Australia Major city 150000 people
          Gordonvale Queensland Australia City -
          Innisfail Queensland Australia City 10000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Beagle Bay BEE unknown 0
          Nhulunbuy GOV 54 Civ. Paved Yes 6700
          Aurukun AUU 9 Civ. Unpaved No 4100
          Weipa WEI 19 Civ. Paved Yes 5300
          Scherger 44 Mil. Paved No 10000
          Agnew AGW unknown 0
          Merluna MLV unknown 0
          Pormpuraaw 3 Civ. Paved No 4400
          Moreton MET unknown 0
          Rokeby RKY unknown 0
          Bamaga ABM 15 Civ. Paved Yes 5200
          Thursday Island TIS 13 Civ. Paved Yes 4500
          Badu Island BDD unknown 0
          Kubin Island KUG unknown 0
          St. Paul's Mission SVM unknown 0
          Kowanyama KWM 11 Civ. Unpaved Yes 4500
          Mabuiag Island UBB unknown 0
          Batavia Downs BVW unknown 0
          Lockhart River IRG 23 Civ. Paved Yes 4300
          Coen CUQ 162 Civ. Unpaved Yes 3900
          Rutland Plains RTP unknown 0
          Mitchell River MXQ unknown 0
          Inkerman IKP unknown 0
          Silver Plains SSP unknown 0
          Dauan Island DAJ unknown 0
          Saibai Island SBR unknown 0
          Musgrave MVU unknown 0
          Koolatah KOH unknown 0
          Dunbar DNB unknown 0
          Yorke Islands OKR 3 0
          Dorunda Station DRD unknown 0
          Dixie DXD unknown 0
          Drumduff DFP unknown 0
          Darnley Island NLF unknown 0
          Murray Islands MYI unknown 0
          Kalpowar KPP unknown 0
          Highbury HIG unknown 0
          Lakefield LFP unknown 0
          Koolburra KKP unknown 0
          Bulimba BIP unknown 0
          Laura LUU unknown 0
          Gamboola GBP unknown 0
          Bizant BZP unknown 0
          Hope Vale HPE unknown 0
          Laura Station LUT unknown 0
          Greenvale Miner Lake GVP unknown 0
          Wrotham Park WPK unknown 0
          Lizard Island LZR 21 0
          Cooktown CTN 8 Civ. Paved Yes 5300
          Helenvale HLV unknown 0
          Bloomfield BFC unknown 0
          Chillagoe LLG 338 Civ. Paved No 3000
          Port Douglas PTI unknown 0
          Mareeba MRG 475 Civ. Paved Yes 4900
          Cairns CNS 3 Civ. Paved Yes 10400
          Innisfail IFL 14 Civ. Paved Yes 3000
          Dunk Island Township DKI unknown 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Cape Arnhem Coral Sea Islands
          Weipa AUWEI Coral Sea Islands
          Thursday Island AUTIS Coral Sea Islands
          Cape York Coral Sea Islands
          Port Stewart Coral Sea Islands
          Cape Flattery AUCQP Coral Sea Islands
          Cooktown AUCTN Coral Sea Islands
          Port Souglas Coral Sea Islands
          Cairns AUCNS Coral Sea Islands
          Innisfail Coral Sea Islands
          Mourilyan AUMOU Coral Sea Islands

          Dams

          Reservoir Dam Name River Year
          Tinaroo Falls Barron 1958
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          1.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  1.4m in Tamarike, Indonesia. This height is estimated for 01 Jan 2019 17:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (219 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 31 Dec 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Tamarike Indonesia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 11:00 Mapoon Australia  1.4
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Sarire Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Kumbe Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Merauke Indonesia  1.3
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Urum Indonesia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Wendu Indonesia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Matara Indonesia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Anansai Indonesia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 15:00 Port Kennedy Australia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 15:00 Hammond I Australia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 15:00 Seisia Australia  1.2
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Onggalie Indonesia  1.1
          31 Dec 2018 08:00 Taroea Anim Indonesia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 14:00 Cowel Creek Australia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Kotad Indonesia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Dumande Indonesia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Badu Australia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 15:00 Cape York Australia  1.1
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Bula Papua New Guinea  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Alatepi Indonesia  1.0
          01 Jan 2019 18:00 Jara Papua New Guinea  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Birab Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Per Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Amborip Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Jow Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Otsjanep Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Biwarlaut Indonesia  1.0
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Dolatanden Indonesia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 14:00 Weipa Australia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 14:00 Weipa South Australia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Okaba Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Agats Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Kladar Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Sabon Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Tor Indonesia  0.9
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Jofar Indonesia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Alakoe Indonesia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 16:00 Kobiem Indonesia  0.9
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Moegaigare Indonesia  0.8
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Alyangula Australia  0.8
          02 Jan 2019 05:00 Sidabadu Papua New Guinea  0.8
          01 Jan 2019 16:00 Welab Indonesia  0.8
          01 Jan 2019 02:00 Numbulwar Australia  0.8
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Papisote Indonesia  0.8
          01 Jan 2019 16:00 Gelib Indonesia  0.7
          01 Jan 2019 15:00 Wamal Indonesia  0.7
          31 Dec 2018 23:00 Komoran Indonesia  0.7
          02 Jan 2019 06:00 Saibai Australia  0.6
          02 Jan 2019 06:00 Hamlet of Togo Papua New Guinea  0.6
          02 Jan 2019 06:00 Mabaduan Papua New Guinea  0.6
          02 Jan 2019 06:00 Waidoro Papua New Guinea  0.6
          31 Dec 2018 22:00 Pasirputih Indonesia  0.6
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Wan Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Konerau Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Selemit Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Amamapare Indonesia  0.5
          01 Jan 2019 05:00 Caburinga Village Australia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Ndapurutiri Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Sanindara Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Sakaoeni Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Timuka Indonesia  0.5
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Agatebi Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Keawkwa Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Tanam Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Kamboeriami Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Sajengga Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Mimako Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Ipirawea Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Naoer Indonesia  0.4
          03 Jan 2019 21:00 Banana Pocket Australia  0.4
          03 Jan 2019 21:00 Lethebrook Australia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Nhulunbuy Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 05:00 Running Creek Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 22:00 Ok Village Australia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Gove Australia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Yirrkala Mission Australia  0.4
          01 Jan 2019 07:00 Yirrkala Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Moegoetira Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Amar Indonesia  0.4
          03 Jan 2019 21:00 Midgeton Australia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Uta Indonesia  0.4
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Aoem Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Tambani Indonesia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 22:00 Te Kowai Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 22:00 Taffy Islet Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 22:00 Cannonvale Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 22:00 Airlie Australia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 18:00 Halifax Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Wakia Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Basada Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Kobroor Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Masian Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Kinara Indonesia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Lower Tully Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Pono Indonesia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 17:00 South Mission Beach Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Umuk Indonesia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Glenella Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Bakers Creek Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 North Mackay Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Mackay Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Cremorne Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Slade Point Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Amhurst Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Rosella Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Chelona Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Kobadangar Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Longar Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Baimoeh Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 05:00 Aloszville Australia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 17:00 Cassady Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 22:00 Carmila Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 22:00 Flaggy Rock Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 00:00 Seaforth Australia  0.3
          03 Jan 2019 22:00 Alligator Creek Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 11:00 Kipia Maparpa Indonesia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 01:00 Etowri Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 01:00 Nindaroo Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 01:00 Bucasia Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 01:00 Eimeo Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 01:00 Andergrove Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 01:00 Blacks Beach Australia  0.3
          04 Jan 2019 00:00 Hay Point Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 16:00 Gomo Gomo Indonesia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 18:00 Lucinda Australia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Djoering Indonesia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Paraoka Indonesia  0.3
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Krai Indonesia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Coolbie Australia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Moongobulla Australia  0.3
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Mutarnee Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Inveroona Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Queens Beach Australia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Elalie Australia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Sege Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Kaisweri Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Sewer Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Karwai Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Komfane Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Karaum Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Keojabi Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Bendjoering Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 14:00 Doka Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Oud Krai Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Krei-lama Indonesia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Carstairs Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Jarvisfield Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Alva Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Rita Island Australia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Clairview Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Aiduna Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Umari Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Potawai Indonesia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Kalarka Australia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Saga Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 07:00 Inanwatatan Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Kedjabi Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Rabal Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Kangoerma Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Moha Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Marlasi Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Masidan Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 02:00 Tarera Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Kowanyama Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Merinda Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Delta Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Bootooloo Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Bowen Australia  0.2
          04 Jan 2019 05:00 Yumbabullo Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Djamboeai Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Barakan Indonesia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 22:00 Mossman Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 22:00 Miallo Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 22:00 Wonga Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 22:00 Port Douglas Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 22:00 Hockley Australia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Diommon Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 13:00 Rollingstone Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 13:00 Kinduro Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 16:00 Innisfail Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 20:00 Deeral Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 20:00 Bellenden Ker Australia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 14:00 Wadjin Indonesia  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 20:00 Kulinchin Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 00:00 Karumba Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 10:00 Elim Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 18:00 Kamma Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 18:00 Yarrabah Aboriginal Community Australia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Emu Park Australia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Farnborough Australia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Yeppoon Australia  0.2
          01 Jan 2019 17:00 Cooktown Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 00:00 Ayton Australia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Goemsei Indonesia  0.2
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Mohitien Indonesia  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Hekampan Papua New Guinea  0.2
          03 Jan 2019 23:00 Tagula Papua New Guinea  0.2
          31 Dec 2018 15:00 Ngaibor Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 02:00 Aibinio Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 20:00 Ture Ture Papua New Guinea  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 21:00 Trinity Beach Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 15:00 Oolbun Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Fatural Indonesia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 01:00 Jerdera Indonesia  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 16:00 Keakalo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 16:00 Gogsiba Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 16:00 Gadaisu Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 16:00 Bona Bona I Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 16:00 Auneri Papua New Guinea  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 16:00 Silo Silo Papua New Guinea  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 02:00 Alardjir Indonesia  0.1
          04 Jan 2019 04:00 Saint Lawrence Australia  0.1
          02 Jan 2019 02:00 Fekfekai Indonesia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Barron Falls Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Freshwater Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Yorkeys Knob Australia  0.1
          01 Jan 2019 23:00 Stratford Australia  0.1
          03 Jan 2019 19:00 Kaduaga Papua New Guinea  0.1