Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (JTWC)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 56 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.0 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

56 km/h Current

Up to 1.7 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 111 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 111 6.4 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 45 10 Oct 2018 15:00 102 5.8 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 46 10 Oct 2018 21:00 102 7.1 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 47 11 Oct 2018 03:00 102 2.2 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 48 11 Oct 2018 09:00 102 4 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 49 11 Oct 2018 15:00 102 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 50 11 Oct 2018 21:00 93 1.7 million No people Mexico
Green 51 12 Oct 2018 03:00 93 1.7 million No people Mexico
Green 52 12 Oct 2018 09:00 83 1.6 million No people Mexico
Green 53 12 Oct 2018 15:00 65 2.3 million No people Mexico
Green 54 12 Oct 2018 18:00 56 1.8 million No people Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.3, -101.5
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12, -102.3
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.2, -102.8
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -103.8
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -104.8
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -105.8
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -106.7
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.9
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -110.4
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.1, -111.5
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -112.7
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -113.5
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.1, -114.6
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.5, -115.4
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12, -116.3
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.6, -117
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13, -117.6
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.5, -118
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.1, -118.5
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.7, -119
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15.3, -119.6
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.7, -120.2
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.9, -120.8
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 16, -121.5
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.8, -122
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.4, -122.5
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15, -123.2
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.8, -123.7
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.4
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.1
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.5, -125.8
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.6
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.6, -127.3
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.8, -127.8
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.5
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 18:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.5, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 00:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.8, -128.5
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.1, -128.2
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.4, -127.7
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.7, -127
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.2, -126.1
GREEN
44 10 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.4, -125.2
GREEN
45 10 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.1, -124
GREEN
46 10 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.7, -123.1
GREEN
47 11 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19.6, -122
GREEN
48 11 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20.5, -120.8
GREEN
49 11 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 21.5, -119.4
GREEN
50 11 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 6500 people no people 22.8, -117.5 Mexico
GREEN
51 12 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 95000 people no people 24.1, -116.2 Mexico
GREEN
52 12 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 1.5 million people no people 25.4, -114.7 Mexico
GREEN
53 12 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 74 1.9 million people no people 26.8, -112.8 Mexico
GREEN
54 12 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 28.5, -110.7 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Baja California Mexico 1.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people 60 km
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people 67 km
Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 580000 people 70 km
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City - 134 km
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people 136 km
Rosario Sonora Mexico City - 149 km
San Juanico Baja California Sur Mexico City - 304 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700 63 km
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 74 km
Bahia Kino North 6 0 131 km
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 149 km
Villa Juarez South 46 0 178 km
Santa Rosalia SRL unknown 0 201 km
Punta Chivato PCV unknown 0 203 km
Punta Chivato Bulge 2 0 208 km
Mulege MUG 61 0 220 km
San Ignacio 1 SGM 244 0 258 km
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200 285 km
Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0 330 km
Guerrero Negro 18 0 336 km
Abreojos AJS unknown 0 345 km
Villa Constitucion VIB 43 0 394 km
Bahia Tortugas 40 0 423 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Empalme Mexico 61 km
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico 67 km
Tiburon Island Mexico 176 km
San Marcos Island MXSMI Mexico 198 km
Santa Rosalia MXSRL Mexico 200 km
Muleje Mexico 220 km
Bahia Salinas Mexico 281 km
Loreto Mexico 282 km
Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico 342 km
Puerto San Bartolome Mexico 422 km
San Carlos MXSCR Mexico 435 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970 31 km
Abelardo Sonora 1948 67 km
El Molini Sonora 1991 79 km
Comaquito Babasac 1977 91 km
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952 109 km
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964 116 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (0 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 01 Oct 2018 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)