Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (12 Oct 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 102 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

102 km/h Current

Up to 2.1 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 111 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 111 6.4 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 45 10 Oct 2018 15:00 102 5.8 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 46 10 Oct 2018 21:00 102 7.1 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 47 11 Oct 2018 03:00 102 2.2 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16, -128.6
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.3, -127.9
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.6, -127.4
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.9, -126.5
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -125.6
GREEN
44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -124.9
GREEN
45 10 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.4, -123.5
GREEN
46 10 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19.2, -122.4
GREEN
47 11 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20, -121.5
GREEN
47 11 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 21.8, -119.3
GREEN
47 12 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 250000 people no people 24.4, -116.4 Mexico
GREEN
47 12 Oct 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 2.1 million people no people 27.2, -113.1 Mexico
GREEN
47 13 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 30, -109.1 Mexico
GREEN
47 14 Oct 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 34.4, -98.8 United States
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Mexico 1.8 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
Arizona United States 3.8 million people
New Mexico United States 1.5 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population Distance
Isla Natividad Baja California Sur Mexico City - 1083 km
San Juanico Baja California Sur Mexico City - 1154 km
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people 1390 km
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people 1400 km
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people 1418 km
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City - 1440 km
Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 580000 people 1467 km
Rosario Sonora Mexico City - 1508 km
Santa Ana Sonora Mexico City 10000 people 1565 km
Magdalena Sonora Mexico City - 1583 km
Cananea Sonora Mexico City 33000 people 1655 km
Douglas Arizona United States City 14000 people 1734 km
Buenaventura Chihuahua Mexico City - 1785 km
Nuevo Casas Grandes Chihuahua Mexico City 50000 people 1787 km

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft) Distance
Bahia Tortugas 40 0 1085 km
Isla Cedros 30 0 1098 km
Abreojos AJS unknown 0 1100 km
Guerrero Negro 18 0 1164 km
Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0 1169 km
San Ignacio 1 SGM 244 0 1189 km
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200 1234 km
Mulege MUG 61 0 1234 km
Punta Chivato Bulge 2 0 1240 km
Santa Rosalia SRL unknown 0 1243 km
Punta Chivato PCV unknown 0 1247 km
Bahia de los Angeles North BHL 5 0 1278 km
Bahia Kino North 6 0 1376 km
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700 1391 km
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 1443 km
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500 1460 km
Tacicuri 773 0 1589 km
Cumpas New 812 0 1622 km
Cananea CNA 1585 Civ. Unpaved No 4900 1658 km
Rancho la Milpita 1435 0 1663 km
Agua Prieta South 1269 0 1725 km
Douglas Municipal DGL 1274 Civ. Paved No 5700 1737 km
Nuevo Casas Grande West 1463 0 1784 km
Nuevo Casas Grandes NCG 1478 Civ. Unpaved No 4900 1789 km

Ports

Name LOCODE Country Distance
Puerto San Bartolome Mexico 1085 km
Morro Redondo MXMRE Mexico 1099 km
Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico 1160 km
Muleje Mexico 1234 km
Loreto Mexico 1236 km
Santa Rosalia MXSRL Mexico 1244 km
San Marcos Island MXSMI Mexico 1248 km
Bahia Salinas Mexico 1253 km
Tiburon Island Mexico 1357 km
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico 1391 km
Empalme Mexico 1398 km

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year Distance
Comaquito Babasac 1977 1427 km
Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970 1463 km
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952 1464 km
Abelardo Sonora 1948 1468 km
El Molini Sonora 1991 1492 km
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964 1558 km
La Angostura Bavispe 1942 1680 km

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Boca del Melgoita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (78 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 53 of 12 Oct 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.6
12 Oct 2018 11:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 11:30 La Playa Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Liliba Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 16:30 San Jose Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Empalme Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 10:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 La Boca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 09:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 08:30 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1