Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SERGIO-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone SERGIO-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 222 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (12 Oct 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 102 km/h n.a. n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 222 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

102 km/h Current

Up to 7 million people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat. 1 or higher
Countries
Green 1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 176 No people No people
Green 2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 176 No people No people
Green 3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 185 No people No people
Green 11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 185 No people No people
Green 12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 185 No people No people
Green 13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 194 No people No people
Green 14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 213 No people No people
Green 17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 222 No people No people
Green 19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 222 No people No people
Green 20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 222 No people No people
Green 21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 222 No people No people
Green 22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 213 No people No people
Green 23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 194 No people No people
Green 25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 185 No people No people
Green 26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 194 No people No people
Green 27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 204 No people No people
Green 28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 204 No people No people
Green 29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 204 No people No people
Green 30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 204 No people No people
Green 31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 194 No people No people
Green 32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 185 40 thousand No people Mexico
Green 33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 167 20 thousand No people Mexico
Green 34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 157 140 thousand No people Mexico
Green 35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 148 1.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 148 4.3 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 148 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 139 5.5 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 139 6.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 139 8.7 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 130 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 111 4.6 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 111 4.9 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 111 6.4 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 45 10 Oct 2018 15:00 102 5.8 million No people Mexico, United States
Green 46 10 Oct 2018 21:00 102 7.1 million No people Mexico, United States

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 29 Sep 2018 15:30 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.4, -102.1
GREEN
2 29 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.1, -102.8
GREEN
3 30 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 12.3, -103.3
GREEN
4 30 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12, -104.3
GREEN
5 30 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 12.1, -105.4
GREEN
6 30 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.5, -106.3
GREEN
7 01 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 11.6, -107.3
GREEN
8 01 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -108.6
GREEN
9 01 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.5, -109.5
GREEN
10 01 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 11.3, -111
GREEN
11 02 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.9, -112
GREEN
12 02 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 10.7, -113.2
GREEN
13 02 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 10.6, -114
GREEN
14 02 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.2, -115.1
GREEN
15 03 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 11.8, -115.8
GREEN
16 03 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 12.3, -116.7
GREEN
17 03 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 12.9, -117.3
GREEN
18 03 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 13.3, -117.9
GREEN
19 04 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 13.8, -118.3
GREEN
20 04 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14.4, -118.8
GREEN
21 04 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 15, -119.3
GREEN
22 04 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 15.5, -119.9
GREEN
23 05 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.9, -120.5
GREEN
24 05 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 16, -121.2
GREEN
25 05 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 15.9, -121.8
GREEN
26 05 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 15.7, -122.3
GREEN
27 06 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 15.3, -122.7
GREEN
28 06 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.9, -123.5
GREEN
29 06 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.7, -124
GREEN
30 06 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.6, -124.7
GREEN
31 07 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 3 194 no people no people 14.5, -125.4
GREEN
32 07 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14.6, -126.1
GREEN
33 07 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 2 167 no people no people 14.5, -126.8
GREEN
34 07 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 2 157 no people no people 14.7, -127.5
GREEN
35 08 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 14.9, -127.9
GREEN
36 08 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.2, -128.1
GREEN
37 08 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 15.3, -128.6
GREEN
38 08 Oct 2018 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.7, -128.5
GREEN
39 09 Oct 2018 03:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16, -128.6
GREEN
40 09 Oct 2018 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 16.3, -127.9
GREEN
41 09 Oct 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16.6, -127.4
GREEN
42 09 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 16.9, -126.5
GREEN
43 10 Oct 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -125.6
GREEN
44 10 Oct 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 17.5, -124.9
GREEN
45 10 Oct 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 18.4, -123.5
GREEN
46 10 Oct 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 19.2, -122.4
GREEN
46 11 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 20.7, -120.6
GREEN
46 11 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 23.3, -117.7
GREEN
46 12 Oct 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 26, -114.5
GREEN
46 12 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 29, -111
GREEN
46 13 Oct 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 33, -101
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Mexico 1.8 million people
Baja California Sur Mexico 340000 people
Sonora Mexico 1.9 million people
Chihuahua Mexico 2.6 million people
Arizona United States 3.8 million people
New Mexico United States 1.5 million people
Texas United States 17.6 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Isla Natividad Baja California Sur Mexico City -
San Juanico Baja California Sur Mexico City -
Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people
Yaqui Sonora Mexico City 14000 people
Ciudad Obregón Sonora Mexico City -
Navojoa Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
Hermosillo Sonora Mexico Major city 580000 people
Rosario Sonora Mexico City -
Santa Ana Sonora Mexico City 10000 people
Magdalena Sonora Mexico City -
Nogales Sonora Mexico City 20000 people
Cananea Sonora Mexico City 33000 people
Douglas Arizona United States City 14000 people
Buenaventura Chihuahua Mexico City -
Nuevo Casas Grandes Chihuahua Mexico City 50000 people
Deming New Mexico United States City 14000 people
Ciudad Juárez Chihuahua Mexico Major city 790000 people
El Paso Texas United States Major city 560000 people
Las Cruces New Mexico United States City 74000 people
Alamogordo New Mexico United States City 35000 people
Pecos Texas United States City 9500 people
Carlsbad New Mexico United States City 25000 people
Artesia New Mexico United States City 10000 people
Fort Stockton Texas United States City 7800 people
Roswell New Mexico United States City 45000 people
Kermit Texas United States City 5700 people
Monahans Texas United States City 6800 people
Hobbs New Mexico United States City 28000 people
Odessa Texas United States City 90000 people
Midland Texas United States City 94000 people
Lamesa Texas United States City 9900 people
Brownfield Texas United States City 9400 people
Levelland Texas United States City 12000 people
Littlefield Texas United States City 6500 people
Lubbock Texas United States City 190000 people
Slaton Texas United States City 6100 people
Snyder Texas United States City 10000 people
Plainview Texas United States City 22000 people
Sweetwater Texas United States City 11000 people
Abilene Texas United States City 110000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Bahia Tortugas 40 0
Isla Cedros 30 0
Abreojos AJS unknown 0
Guerrero Negro 18 0
Guerrero Negro GUB 18 0
San Ignacio 1 SGM 244 0
Loreto LTO 3 Civ. Paved Yes 7200
Mulege MUG 61 0
Punta Chivato Bulge 2 0
Santa Rosalia SRL unknown 0
Punta Chivato PCV unknown 0
Bahia de los Angeles North BHL 5 0
Bahia Kino North 6 0
General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700
Puerto Libertad North 5 0
Villa Juarez South 46 0
Ciudad Obregon CEN 74 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Gen Ignacio P Garcia International HMO 192 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Calera 177 0
Tacicuri 773 0
Cumpas New 812 0
Nogales NOG 1222 Civ. Paved No 5900
Nogales International OLS 1198 Civ. Paved Yes 7100
Cananea CNA 1585 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
Rancho la Milpita 1435 0
Lone Mountain International 1631 0
Evelyn Field 1293 0
Sierra Vista Municipal FHU 1437 Civ. Paved Yes 12000
Sierra Vista Community Hospital 1386 0
Thompson International Aviation 1303 0
Whetstone 1295 0
Bisbee Municipal BSQ 1457 0
Copper Queen Hospital 1524 0
Agua Prieta South 1269 0
Cochise College 1256 0
Tombstone Municipal 1446 0
Douglas Municipal DGL 1274 Civ. Paved No 5700
Bisbee Douglas International DUG 1265 Civ. Paved Yes 7300
Tribal Air 1280 0
Circle H Ranch 1426 0
Nuevo Casas Grande West 1463 0
Nuevo Casas Grandes NCG 1478 Civ. Unpaved No 4900
Gray Ranch 1571 0
Rodeo 1267 0
Playas Air Strip 1377 0
Southwell H.Q. 1370 0
Columbus 1218 0
Columbus Municipal CUS 1265 0
Luna Landing 1295 0
Allen's 1326 0
Deming Municipal DMN 1313 Civ. Paved Yes 6600
Solo Ranch 1280 0
Burris 'e' Ranch 1341 0
Burris E Station 1311 0
Santa Teresa Airport 1253 0
Ciudad Juarez International CJS 1171 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
Cielo Dorado Estates 1143 0
Sierra Medical Center 1190 0
Las Cruces Municipal LRU 1358 Civ. Paved Yes 7400
Thomason General Hospital 1128 0
Stahmann Farms 1228 0
Fabens 1121 0
Bear 1158 0
El Paso International ELP 1206 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
Biggs AAF BIF 1204 Mil. Paved Yes 13500
West Texas 1221 0
Memorial Medical Center 1228 0
Fort Hancock 1072 0
Rhoads 1524 0
Shoestring Ranch 1353 0
Waids Airpark 1329 0
Hot Springs 936 0
Presidio Lely International 894 0
Condron AAF WSD 1199 0
Sierra Blanca 1375 0
Cibolo Creek Ranch 1341 0
Lwb Ranch Cornudas 1311 0
Mayfield Ranch 1399 0
Culberson County VHN 1205 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
Big Tank Ranch 1463 0
Clm Ranch 1167 0
Holloman AFB HMN 1248 Mil. Paved Yes 12100
Figure 2 Ranch 1128 0
Alamogordo White Sands Regional ALM 1279 Civ. Paved Yes 7000
Alta Vista Ranch 1433 0
Dell City Municipal 1128 0
Marfa Municipal MRF 1478 Civ. Paved Yes 6200
Gorby Ranch 1341 0
Timberon 2115 0
Otero Mill 1403 0
Blue Mountain 1524 0
Rancho del Cielo 1344 0
Alpine Municipal ALE 1376 0
Triangle Ranch Private 1341 0
Seven Springs 1067 0
Iron Mountain Ranch 1315 0
Flying H Ranch 1573 0
Carlsbad Caverns 1101 0
Skeen Ranch 1684 0
Carlsbad CNM 1004 Civ. Paved Yes 7800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Puerto San Bartolome Mexico
Morro Redondo MXMRE Mexico
Prt Venustiano Carranza Mexico
Muleje Mexico
Loreto Mexico
Santa Rosalia MXSRL Mexico
San Marcos Island MXSMI Mexico
Bahia Salinas Mexico
Tiburon Island Mexico
Guaymas MXGYM Mexico
Empalme Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Comaquito Babasac 1977
Ignacio L. Alatorre Punta de Agua Matape 1970
Alvaro Obregon Alvaro Obregon Yaqui 1952
Abelardo Sonora 1948
El Molini Sonora 1991
Novillo Plutarco Elias Calles El Yaqui 1964
Cuauhtemoc Altar 1950
La Angostura Bavispe 1942
Hudspeth Regulating Reservoir Diablo Reservoir Levee Offstream Rio Grande 1993
Red Bluff Dam Pecos River 1936
Brantley Brantley Pecos River 1989
Natural Dam Sulphur Springs Draw 1989
Red Draw Dam Red Draw 1985
Mitchell County Reservoir Dam Trib. Beals Creek 1991
Lake J.B. Thomas Lake J.B. Thomas Dam Colorado River 1952
Lake Colorado Lake Colorado City Dam Morgan Creek 1949
Champion Creek Dam Champion Creek 1959
Robert Lee Dam Colorado River 1969
Lake Alan Henry John T. Montford Dam Double Mountain Fork Brazos River 1994
Oak Creek Dam Oak Creek 1950
White River Dam White River 1963
Lake Winters Elm Creek Dam Elm Creek 1983
Lake Abilene Dam Elm Creek 1921
Fort Phantom Hill Dam Big Elm Creek 1938
Lake Stamford Dam Paint Creek 1953
Truscott Brine Lake Truscott Brine Dam South Fork of Wichita River 1983
Millers Creek Dam Millers Creek 1974

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.6m in Boca del Melgoita, Mexico. This height is estimated for 12 Oct 2018 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (78 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 53 of 12 Oct 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.6
12 Oct 2018 11:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.5
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 11:30 La Playa Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.4
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 18:30 Liliba Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 16:30 San Jose Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 12:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Empalme Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 11:30 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 17:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 La Florida Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Altata Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 10:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 13:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 12:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 La Boca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 14:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 El Barril Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Dimas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 13:30 Mulege Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 09:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 15:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 16:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2018 08:30 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1