Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18
in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (13 Sep 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 120 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 157 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to no people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 139 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 157 No people No people
Green 3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 148 No people No people
Green 4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 148 520 thousand No people Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
Green 5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 139 600 thousand 120 thousand Martinique
Green 6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 157 740 thousand 200 thousand Martinique
Green 7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 157 660 thousand 40 thousand Martinique, Dominica
Green 8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 157 650 thousand 390 thousand Martinique
Green 9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 157 980 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 157 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 148 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 139 890 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 139 930 thousand 70 thousand Dominica
Green 14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 120 980 thousand 60 thousand Dominica
Green 15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 120 920 thousand No people Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.6, -34.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 13.9, -34.9
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.3, -35.4
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14.6, -36
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.5, -36.6
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.4, -37.5
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.5, -38.1
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.3, -39.1
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -40.3
GREEN
10 10 Sep 2018 03:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.5, -41.6
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -42.7
GREEN
12 10 Sep 2018 15:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.7, -43.9
GREEN
13 10 Sep 2018 21:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.4, -45
GREEN
14 11 Sep 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.5, -46.9
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 09:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -48.1
GREEN
15 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -50.1
GREEN
15 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.6, -52.6
GREEN
15 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.8, -55
GREEN
15 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 920000 people 15.1, -57.6 Montserrat
GREEN
15 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 120000 people 15.5, -62.8 Montserrat
GREEN
15 15 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 15.6, -67.4
GREEN
15 16 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.8, -72
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Castle Bruce, Dominica. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (17 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 11 Sep 2018 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.3
13 Sep 2018 23:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.3
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Marigot Dominica  0.2
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Baroui Dominica  0.2
14 Sep 2018 01:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 00:00 Roseau Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Dubuc Dominica  0.1
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Baie-Mahault Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
14 Sep 2018 01:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
14 Sep 2018 01:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Pointe-a-Pitre Guadeloupe  0.1
13 Sep 2018 22:00 Basse-Pointe Martinique  0.1
13 Sep 2018 23:00 Scotts Head Dominica  0.1
14 Sep 2018 01:00 Sainte-Anne Guadeloupe  0.1
14 Sep 2018 02:00 Saint-Claude Guadeloupe  0.1