Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ISAAC-18 in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados from 07 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC to 15 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (13 Sep 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.1 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.5 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 21:00	139	No people	No people
2	08 Sep 2018 03:00	157	No people	No people
3	08 Sep 2018 09:00	148	No people	No people
4	08 Sep 2018 15:00	148	520 thousand	No people	Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
5	08 Sep 2018 21:00	139	600 thousand	120 thousand	Martinique
6	09 Sep 2018 03:00	157	740 thousand	200 thousand	Martinique
7	09 Sep 2018 09:00	157	660 thousand	40 thousand	Martinique, Dominica
8	09 Sep 2018 15:00	157	650 thousand	390 thousand	Martinique
9	09 Sep 2018 21:00	157	980 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
10	10 Sep 2018 03:00	157	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
11	10 Sep 2018 09:00	148	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
12	10 Sep 2018 15:00	139	890 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
13	10 Sep 2018 21:00	139	930 thousand	70 thousand	Dominica
14	11 Sep 2018 03:00	120	980 thousand	60 thousand	Dominica
15	11 Sep 2018 09:00	120	920 thousand	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Montserrat
16	11 Sep 2018 15:00	120	1 million	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
17	11 Sep 2018 21:00	111	1 million	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
18	12 Sep 2018 03:00	102	820 thousand	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
19	12 Sep 2018 09:00	93	1 million	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Dominica, Guadeloupe
20	12 Sep 2018 15:00	93	1000 thousand	No people	Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica
21	12 Sep 2018 21:00	93	1.2 million	No people	Martinique, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Jamaica
22	13 Sep 2018 03:00	83	1.2 million	No people	Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat
23	13 Sep 2018 09:00	74	1.5 million	No people	Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Barbados, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, Saint Kitts and Nevis
24	13 Sep 2018 15:00	74	1.5 million	No people	Dominica, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Montserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados
25	13 Sep 2018 21:00	65	1.5 million	No people	Dominica, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Montserrat, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados
26	14 Sep 2018 03:00	65	1.5 million	No people	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique, Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
27	14 Sep 2018 09:00	56	1.5 million	No people	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Dominica, Antigua and Barbuda, Martinique, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Barbados
28	14 Sep 2018 15:00	56	1.5 million	No people	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
29	14 Sep 2018 21:00	65	1.5 million	No people	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
30	15 Sep 2018 03:00	65	1.5 million	No people	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
31	15 Sep 2018 09:00	56	1.5 million	No people	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.6, -34.9
2	08 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.9, -34.9
3	08 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.3, -35.4
4	08 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.6, -36
5	08 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.5, -36.6
6	09 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.4, -37.5
7	09 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.5, -38.1
8	09 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.3, -39.1
9	09 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.5, -40.3
10	10 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.5, -41.6
11	10 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.7, -42.7
12	10 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.7, -43.9
13	10 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.4, -45
14	11 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.5, -46.9
15	11 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.6, -48.1
16	11 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.6, -49.7
17	11 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	14.6, -51.3
18	12 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.5, -52.3
19	12 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	14.5, -53.5
20	12 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15, -54.7
21	12 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	<1000 people	15.4, -56.6
22	13 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	1.1 million people	15.3, -58	Antigua and Barbuda
23	13 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.4 million people	15.4, -59.7	Montserrat
24	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.2 million people	14.9, -61.8	Montserrat
25	13 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.9, -63.2
26	14 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.9, -64.4
27	14 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15, -65.5
28	14 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.9, -67.3
29	14 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.3, -68.2
30	15 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	15.4, -69.5
31	15 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.8, -70.8

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Montserrat
Guadeloupe
Antigua & Barbuda
Dominica
Martinique
St. Vincent & the Grenadines
St. Lucia
Barbados

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Montserrat	Montserrat
Guadeloupe	Guadeloupe
Antigua & Barbuda	Antigua and Barbuda
Dominica	Dominica
Martinique	Martinique
St. Vincent & the Grenadines	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
St. Lucia	Saint Lucia
Barbados	Barbados

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Plymouth	Saint Anthony	Montserrat	Capital	no people
Basse-Terre		Guadeloupe	Capital	11000 people
Saint-Claude		Guadeloupe	City	10000 people
Saint John's		Antigua and Barbuda	Capital	22000 people
Capesterre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Pointe-à-Pitre		Guadeloupe	City	-
Roseau	Saint George	Dominica	Capital	17000 people
Moule		Guadeloupe	City	-
Kingstown	Saint George	St. Vincent and the Grenadines	Capital	18000 people
Fort-de-France		Martinique	Capital	89000 people
Castries	Castries	St. Lucia	Capital	13000 people
Bridgetown	Saint Michael	Barbados	Capital	97000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Montserrat Blackburne	MNI	unknown				0
W H Bramble (Abandoned)		12				0
Basse-Terre Baillif	BBR	unknown				0
Terre-de-Bas	HTB	unknown				0
Terre de Haut	LSS	unknown				0
V C Bird International	ANU	19	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Le Raizet	PTP	11	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11400
Canefield		4	Civ.	Paved	No	2500
Dominica Cane	DCF	unknown				0
Melville Hall	DOM	24	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800
Marie Galante	GBJ	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4000
St. Francois	SFC	unknown				0
Union Island	UNI	unknown				0
Canouan		5	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
J F Mitchell		4	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
E T Joshua	SVD	20	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4600
Le Lamentin	FDF	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10800
Vigie	SLU	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6200
La Desirade Les Galets	DSD	unknown				0
Hewanorra International	UVF	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9000
Grantley Adams International	BGI	52	Civ.	Paved	Yes	11000

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Plymouth		Montserrat
Basse Terre	GPBBR	Guadeloupe
Saint Johns	AGSJO	Antigua and Barbuda
Bourg Des Saintes		Guadeloupe
Parham Harbour		Antigua and Barbuda
Pointe-a-Pitre	GPPTP	Guadeloupe
Portsmouth	DMPOR	Dominica
Port Louis		Guadeloupe
Roseau	DMRSU	Dominica
Grand Bourg		Guadeloupe
Saint Louis		Guadeloupe
Saint Pierre		Martinique
Fort de France	MQFDF	Martinique
Kingstown	VCKTN	Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Admiralty Bay		Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Cul de Sac Bay	LCCDS	Saint Lucia
La Trinite		Martinique
Castries	LCSLU	Saint Lucia
Le Robert		Martinique
Vieux Fort		Saint Lucia
Le Marin		Martinique
Speightstown		Barbados
Bridgetown	BBBGI	Barbados

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Saint Pierre la Manzo	Manche	1978

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Le Bourg, Guadeloupe. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (18 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 12 Sep 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Sep 2018 17:00	Le Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 16:00	Baie-Mahault	Guadeloupe	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 16:00	Grand-Bourg	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Castle Bruce	Dominica	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 17:00	Sainte-Anne	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 17:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Pointe-a-Pitre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 18:00	Basse-Terre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	16 Sep 2018 21:00	Brazalitta	Jamaica	0.1
	16 Sep 2018 21:00	Mahoe Gardens	Jamaica	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 16:00	Saint-Louis	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Capesterre	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 17:00	Portsmouth	Dominica	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 16:00	Baroui	Dominica	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 18:00	Saint-Claude	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 19:00	Bouillante	Guadeloupe	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 16:00	Marigot	Dominica	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	La Plaine	Dominica	0.1