Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ISAAC-18 in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados from 07 Sep 2018 21:00 UTC to 09 Sep 2018 15:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ISAAC-18

in Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ISAAC-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Montserrat, Guadeloupe, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Martinique, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Lucia, Barbados
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (13 Sep 14:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Montserrat)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	157 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

157 km/h Current Max.

Up to 390000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 21:00	139	No people	No people
2	08 Sep 2018 03:00	157	No people	No people
3	08 Sep 2018 09:00	148	No people	No people
4	08 Sep 2018 15:00	148	520 thousand	No people	Barbados, Martinique, Saint Lucia
5	08 Sep 2018 21:00	139	600 thousand	120 thousand	Martinique
6	09 Sep 2018 03:00	157	740 thousand	200 thousand	Martinique
7	09 Sep 2018 09:00	157	660 thousand	40 thousand	Martinique, Dominica
8	09 Sep 2018 15:00	157	650 thousand	390 thousand	Martinique

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.6, -34.9
2	08 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.9, -34.9
3	08 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.3, -35.4
4	08 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.6, -36
5	08 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.5, -36.6
6	09 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.4, -37.5
7	09 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.5, -38.1
8	09 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	14.3, -39.1
8	10 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	14.4, -40.8
8	10 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	14.4, -43.3
8	11 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	14.4, -46.3
8	11 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	14.3, -49.1
8	12 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 1	148	no people	600000 people	14.2, -54.8	Dominica
8	13 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 1	130	390000 people	640000 people	14.5, -60.5	Martinique
8	14 Sep 2018 12:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	15, -66.5

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Martinique

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Martinique	Martinique

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Fort-de-France		Martinique	Capital	89000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Le Lamentin	FDF	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10800

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Le Marin		Martinique
Le Robert		Martinique
La Trinite		Martinique
Fort de France	MQFDF	Martinique
Saint Pierre		Martinique

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Saint Pierre la Manzo	Manche	1978

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.8m in Hyacinthe, Martinique. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2018 14:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (12 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 8 of 09 Sep 2018 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Hyacinthe	Martinique	0.8
	13 Sep 2018 13:00	Le Vauclin	Martinique	0.5
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Fonds Panier	Martinique	0.3
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Sainte-Anne	Martinique	0.3
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Lero	Martinique	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Fort-de-France	Martinique	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Les Anses dArlets	Martinique	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Sainte Pierre	Martinique	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 15:00	Basse-Pointe	Martinique	0.2
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Castries	St. Lucia	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 13:00	Bosquet d'Or	St. Lucia	0.1
	13 Sep 2018 14:00	Cap Estate	St. Lucia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.