Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
GDACS
Impact Single TC
Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.7 m (16 Sep 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (China)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 130 km/h n.a. n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 287 km/h 2.7 m n.a. 2.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 60.9 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 250 27 million 750 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
Orange 15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 259 65.2 million 210 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 250 113 million 1.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
Red 17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 250 151 million 3.5 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 250 185.2 million 31.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 250 190.1 million 37 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 269 207.4 million 43.4 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 259 217.7 million 54.2 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China
Red 22 12 Sep 2018 06:00 259 228.5 million 42.6 million Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines, China, Viet Nam
Red 23 12 Sep 2018 12:00 250 260 million 40.8 million Guam, Philippines, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam
Red 24 12 Sep 2018 18:00 269 256 million 27.3 million Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam
Red 25 13 Sep 2018 00:00 250 259.6 million 31.4 million Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam
Red 26 13 Sep 2018 06:00 259 248.1 million 47.8 million Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, China, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
Red 27 13 Sep 2018 12:00 259 265.3 million 34 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam
Red 28 13 Sep 2018 18:00 287 291 million 41.6 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam
Red 29 14 Sep 2018 00:00 269 278.5 million 36.7 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam
Red 30 14 Sep 2018 06:00 269 299.3 million 58.6 million Philippines, China, Viet Nam, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 31 14 Sep 2018 12:00 269 294.3 million 48.6 million Philippines, China, Viet Nam, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 32 14 Sep 2018 18:00 269 275.5 million 40.8 million Philippines, China, Viet Nam, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 33 15 Sep 2018 00:00 213 257.3 million 30.5 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Red 34 15 Sep 2018 06:00 194 278.3 million 26.5 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 35 15 Sep 2018 12:00 176 231.4 million 45.7 million Philippines, China, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 36 15 Sep 2018 18:00 167 255.9 million 24.3 million China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 37 16 Sep 2018 00:00 157 260.2 million 30.3 million China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 38 16 Sep 2018 06:00 148 293.5 million 78.6 million China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
Orange 39 16 Sep 2018 12:00 130 265.5 million 60.9 million China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
GREEN
2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
GREEN
3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
GREEN
4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
GREEN
6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
GREEN
7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
GREEN
8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
GREEN
9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
GREEN
10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
GREEN
11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
GREEN
12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 49000 people no people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 210000 people 5300 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
ORANGE
14 10 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 2 167 210000 people 130000 people 14.3, 145.7 Guam
GREEN
15 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 185 210000 people no people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
16 10 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 3 204 160000 people no people 14, 142.6 Northern Mariana Islands
GREEN
17 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 222 no people no people 14, 141.2
GREEN
18 11 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 14, 139.7
GREEN
19 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.7, 138.6
GREEN
20 11 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 137.3
GREEN
21 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 13.9, 136.2
GREEN
22 12 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 5 278 no people no people 14, 135.2
GREEN
23 12 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 278 no people no people 14.2, 134
GREEN
24 12 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 287 no people no people 14.3, 132.5
GREEN
25 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 14.5, 131.2
GREEN
26 13 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 1.2 million people no people 14.7, 130.1 Philippines
GREEN
27 13 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 7.4 million people no people 15, 129 Philippines
GREEN
28 13 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 278 53.8 million people no people 15.2, 127.9 Philippines
GREEN
29 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 5 278 56.7 million people no people 15.9, 126.9 Philippines
RED
30 14 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 5 269 57.5 million people 3.7 million people 16.8, 125.6 Philippines
RED
31 14 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 5 269 63.2 million people 6.9 million people 17.4, 124.1 Philippines
RED
32 14 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 5 269 62.1 million people 6.2 million people 18, 122.3 Philippines
RED
33 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 213 101.8 million people 4.2 million people 18.1, 120.6 Philippines
RED
34 15 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 3 194 132.7 million people 1.4 million people 18.5, 119.7 Philippines
GREEN
35 15 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 194 121 million people no people 19.2, 118.4 China
ORANGE
36 15 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 2 167 125.5 million people 100000 people 19.8, 116.9 China
ORANGE
37 16 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 2 157 177.3 million people 7.5 million people 20.7, 115.2 China
ORANGE
38 16 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 148 195.8 million people 72.1 million people 21.6, 113.6 China
ORANGE
39 16 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 130 138.2 million people 18.7 million people 22.1, 111.8 China
ORANGE
39 17 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 93 47.5 million people no people 23, 108.8 Viet Nam
ORANGE
39 17 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 65 19.2 million people no people 23.9, 106.2 Viet Nam
GREEN
39 18 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 24.9, 104 China
GREEN
39 18 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 28 no people no people 25.8, 102.2 China
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
China
Philippines
Guam
Northern Mariana Is.

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Guangdong China 69.6 million people
Guangxi China 46.8 million people
Macau China 380000 people
Hong Kong China 5.8 million people
Ilocos Philippines 3.5 million people
Cagayan Valley Philippines 2.3 million people
Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines 1.1 million people
Southern Tagalog Philippines 8.2 million people
Guam Guam 140000 people
Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands 60000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Chuncheng Guangdong China City 150000 people
Jiangcheng Guangdong China City -
Encheng Guangdong China City 110000 people
Xinxing Guangdong China City -
Cangcheng Guangdong China City -
Sihe Guangdong China City -
Gaozhou Guangdong China City 160000 people
Taicheng Guangdong China City 140000 people
Sanbu Guangdong China City 130000 people
Mingcheng Guangdong China City -
Xincheng Guangdong China City -
Jiangmen Guangdong China City 530000 people
Rongcheng Guangxi China City -
Xiaolan Guangdong China City 180000 people
Lingcheng Guangxi China City -
Guizhou Guangdong China City -
Zhongshan Guangdong China City 330000 people
Sanxiang Guangdong China City -
Daliang Guangdong China City 210000 people
Macau Macau SAR Macau (China) Major city -
Yulin Guangxi China City 140000 people
Shiqiao Guangdong China City 130000 people
Tuen Mun Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) City -
Shenzhen Guangdong China Major city 1 million people
Central Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 6.1 million people
Kowloon Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city 2 million people
Tai Po Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) City -
Sha Tin Hong Kong SAR Hong Kong (China) Major city -
Guichen Guangxi China City -
Hengzhou Guangxi China City -
Lingcheng Guangxi China City -
Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people
Laoag Ilocos Philippines City 100000 people
San Nicolas Ilocos Philippines City 19000 people
Tuguegarao Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people
Cabagan Cagayan Valley Philippines City 24000 people
Santiago Cagayan Valley Philippines City 100000 people
Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Zhuhai ZUH 6 0
Shanzhou SZO unknown 0
Macau MFM 6 Civ. Paved Yes 11000
Shenzhen SZX 4 Civ. Paved Yes 11100
Hong Kong International (Chep Lap Kok) HKG 9 Civ. Paved Yes 12400
Sek Kong 15 Priv. Paved No 4100
Pratas Island 3 0
Laoag International LAO 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7900
Vigan 4 Civ. Paved No 3400
Taggat 5 0
Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900
Bagabag 249 Civ. Paved No 3200
Mrmp 117 0
Cauayan CYZ 61 Civ. Paved No 5700
Palanan 50 Civ. Unpaved No 3200
A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
West Tinian TIQ 82 Civ. Paved Yes 5900
Dynasty 46 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Yangjiang CNYJI China
Jiangmen CNJMN China
Chiwan CNCWN China
Hong Kong HKHKG Hong Kong (China)
Yantian CNYTN China
Spec / lde 888 China
Huizhou China
Xijiang Terminal China
Huizhou Terminal CNHUI China
Lan Shui Terminal China
Pratas Island China
Dirique Inlet Philippines
Laoag PHLAO Philippines
Gan Bay Philippines
Salomague Philippines
Pandan Philippines
Claveria Philippines
Port San Esteban Philippines
Calayan Philippines
Abulog Philippines
Aparri PHAPR Philippines
Port San Vicente Philippines
Palanan Philippines
Apra Harbor Guam
Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
Rota Northern Mariana Islands
Tinian Northern Mariana Islands

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Jinjiang Tan He 1972
Donghu Nalong He 1961
Huangsha Yanghua Jiang 1960
Fucao Qianpai He 1997
Gaozhou Dajing He 1959
Dalongdong Dalongdong He 1959
Songmushan Trib. Dong Jiang -99
Wusijiang Wusi Jiang 1958
Lingdong Yin Jiang 1963
Xijin Yu Jiang 1964
Pinglong Trib. Yu Jiang -99
Magat Magat 1983

Nuclear plants

Name Country Reactors
GUANGDONG CHINA 2
LINGAO CHINA 2

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

2.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.7m in Xiaolin, China. This height is estimated for 16 Sep 2018 09:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (822 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 38 of 16 Sep 2018 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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