Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MANGKHUT-18
in China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
10 Sep 2018 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MANGKHUT-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries China, Philippines, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Viet Nam, Laos, Myanmar
    Exposed population 60.9 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 287 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Sep 08:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (China)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 250 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 287 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      250 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 2.2 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 194 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Orange 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 204 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Orange 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 176 210 thousand 170 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 185 210 thousand 100 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Green 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 250 210 thousand 10 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 213 210 thousand 140 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Red 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 185 3.5 million 40 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam
        Orange 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 241 24.9 million 200 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Philippines
        Orange 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 250 26.1 million 820 thousand Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines
        Orange 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 250 25.7 million 2.2 million Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 12.3, 168
          GREEN
          		 2 07 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 12.4, 166.7
          GREEN
          		 3 07 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.8, 165.5
          GREEN
          		 4 07 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13, 163.9
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Sep 2018 00:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.6, 162.3
          GREEN
          		 6 08 Sep 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.3, 160.8
          GREEN
          		 7 08 Sep 2018 12:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.8, 159.1
          GREEN
          		 8 08 Sep 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 14.9, 157
          GREEN
          		 9 09 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 15.1, 154.9
          GREEN
          		 10 09 Sep 2018 06:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.3, 152.9
          GREEN
          		 11 09 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.1, 150.9
          GREEN
          		 12 09 Sep 2018 18:00 Category 1 148 no people 49000 people 14.7, 149.1 Northern Mariana Islands
          ORANGE
          		 13 10 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 1 148 5400 people 210000 people 14.5, 147.4 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 13 10 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 2 167 no people 210000 people 14.1, 144.2 Northern Mariana Islands
          GREEN
          		 13 11 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 3 185 no people no people 14, 141.4
          GREEN
          		 13 11 Sep 2018 12:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 14.2, 138.7
          GREEN
          		 13 12 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 213 no people no people 14.5, 136.1
          GREEN
          		 13 13 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 231 no people no people 15.7, 131.2
          ORANGE
          		 13 14 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 250 2 million people 25.5 million people 17.3, 126.6 Philippines
          GREEN
          		 13 15 Sep 2018 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 19.3, 121.8 Philippines
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Northern Mariana Is.
          Guam
          Philippines

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Northern Mariana Is. Northern Mariana Islands
          Guam Guam
          Cagayan Valley Philippines
          Cordillera Administrative Region Philippines
          Ilocos Philippines

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people
          Tuguegarao Cagayan Valley Philippines City 110000 people
          Bacarra Ilocos Philippines City 9600 people
          Laoag Ilocos Philippines City 100000 people
          San Nicolas Ilocos Philippines City 20000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000
          Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
          A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
          Tuguegarao TUG 21 Civ. Paved No 5900
          Basco BSO 56 Civ. Paved No 4100
          Taggat 5 0
          Laoag International LAO 6 Civ. Paved Yes 7900

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Rota Northern Mariana Islands
          Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
          Apra Harbor Guam
          Port San Vicente Philippines
          Basco Philippines
          Aparri PHAPR Philippines
          Abulog Philippines
          Calayan Philippines
          Claveria Philippines
          Dirique Inlet Philippines
          Laoag PHLAO Philippines
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Songsong, Northern Mariana Islands. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2018 08:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (74 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 10 Sep 2018 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          10 Sep 2018 08:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
          10 Sep 2018 08:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
          10 Sep 2018 08:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
          10 Sep 2018 08:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.4
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Wright Philippines  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 23:00 Pequit Philippines  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 23:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.2
          13 Sep 2018 23:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Oceanview Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Dededo Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 South Acres Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Ipapao Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Upi Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Gayinero Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Asatdas Guam  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 10:00 Lupog Guam  0.2
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Bangon Philippines  0.2
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Piti Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asan Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Hagatna Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Sinajana Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Mongmong Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Yona Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Tamuning Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Barrigada Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Asbeco Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Adacao Guam  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 22:00 Bikal Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Sunharon Roads Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Bagas Philippines  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Agat Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Talofofo Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Ylig Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Umatac Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Merizo Guam  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 11:00 Inarajan Guam  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Pandan Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 19:00 Bagacay Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 17:00 San Andres Philippines  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Afetna Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Susupi Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Laolao Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Chalan Kanoa Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Aslito Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Saipan Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          10 Sep 2018 06:00 Kagman Northern Mariana Islands  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Bitaogan Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Caramoan Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Guijalo Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Pandanan Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Colongcogong Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Sialat Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Calolbon Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Manambrag Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Gitoma Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Panganiban Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 22:00 Macalonud Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 19:00 Tatabunan Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 20:00 Guintampilan Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Miguel Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Balaton Philippines  0.1
          13 Sep 2018 19:00 Narombacan Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Babatngon Philippines  0.1
          14 Sep 2018 00:00 Pagsanjan Philippines  0.1