Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FLORENCE-18 in United States from 31 Aug 2018 21:00 UTC to 12 Sep 2018 03:00 UTC

12 Sep 2018 03 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS

Impact Single TC

HWRF

ECMWF

GFS

Impact all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FLORENCE-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	United States
Exposed population	1.5 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	241 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.9 m (14 Sep 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (United States)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GDACS Current	213 km/h	2.0 m	n.a.	1.5
GDACS Overall	241 km/h	1.9 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

213 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.1 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	30 Aug 2018 15:00	120	50 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
2	30 Aug 2018 21:00	120	40 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
3	31 Aug 2018 03:00	120	7 thousand	No people
4	31 Aug 2018 09:00	120	50 thousand	No people	Cape Verde
5	31 Aug 2018 15:00	120	No people	No people
6	31 Aug 2018 21:00	111	No people	No people
7	01 Sep 2018 03:00	111	No people	No people
8	01 Sep 2018 09:00	111	No people	No people
9	01 Sep 2018 15:00	111	No people	No people
10	01 Sep 2018 21:00	102	No people	No people
11	02 Sep 2018 03:00	102	No people	No people
12	02 Sep 2018 09:00	102	No people	No people
13	02 Sep 2018 15:00	102	No people	No people
14	02 Sep 2018 21:00	102	No people	No people
15	03 Sep 2018 03:00	93	No people	No people
16	03 Sep 2018 09:00	102	No people	No people
17	03 Sep 2018 15:00	111	No people	No people
18	03 Sep 2018 21:00	111	No people	No people
19	04 Sep 2018 03:00	111	No people	No people
20	04 Sep 2018 09:00	120	No people	No people
21	04 Sep 2018 15:00	120	No people	No people
22	04 Sep 2018 21:00	148	No people	No people
23	05 Sep 2018 03:00	167	No people	No people
24	05 Sep 2018 09:00	167	No people	No people
25	05 Sep 2018 15:00	204	No people	No people
26	05 Sep 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
27	06 Sep 2018 03:00	213	No people	No people
28	06 Sep 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
29	06 Sep 2018 15:00	194	No people	No people
30	06 Sep 2018 21:00	194	No people	No people
31	07 Sep 2018 03:00	204	No people	No people
32	07 Sep 2018 09:00	204	No people	No people
33	07 Sep 2018 15:00	213	No people	No people
34	07 Sep 2018 21:00	213	No people	No people
35	08 Sep 2018 03:00	213	No people	No people
36	08 Sep 2018 09:00	231	No people	No people
37	08 Sep 2018 15:00	231	No people	No people
38	08 Sep 2018 21:00	231	410 thousand	No people	United States
39	09 Sep 2018 03:00	231	2.7 million	160 thousand	United States
40	09 Sep 2018 09:00	222	4.3 million	340 thousand	United States
41	09 Sep 2018 15:00	222	6.5 million	600 thousand	United States
42	09 Sep 2018 21:00	222	5.9 million	990 thousand	United States
43	10 Sep 2018 03:00	241	5.7 million	990 thousand	United States
44	10 Sep 2018 09:00	231	7.4 million	1.3 million	United States
45	10 Sep 2018 15:00	231	8 million	2.1 million	United States
46	10 Sep 2018 21:00	222	6.5 million	2 million	United States
47	11 Sep 2018 03:00	222	5.2 million	820 thousand	United States
48	11 Sep 2018 09:00	231	5.7 million	880 thousand	United States
49	11 Sep 2018 15:00	222	5.8 million	680 thousand	United States
50	11 Sep 2018 21:00	222	12.4 million	1.1 million	United States
51	12 Sep 2018 03:00	213	13.4 million	1.2 million	United States

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	30 Aug 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.9, -18.4
2	30 Aug 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	12.9, -19.4
3	31 Aug 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.2, -20.9
4	31 Aug 2018 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.6, -21.4
5	31 Aug 2018 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.7, -22.7
6	31 Aug 2018 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	13.8, -24.7
7	01 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.2, -25.5
8	01 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.5, -26.7
9	01 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.8, -27.8
10	01 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -29
11	02 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	16, -30.2
12	02 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.5, -31.4
13	02 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17, -33.2
14	02 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17.4, -34.6
15	03 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	17.9, -35.9
16	03 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	18, -37.5
17	03 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	18.3, -38.7
18	03 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.6, -39.8
19	04 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	18.9, -41
20	04 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	19.3, -42
21	04 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	19.7, -42.5
22	04 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	20.3, -43.2
23	05 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 2	157	no people	no people	20.7, -43.9
24	05 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	21.4, -44.8
25	05 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	22, -45.7
26	05 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	22.7, -46.6
27	06 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	23.4, -47.2
28	06 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	24.1, -47.9
29	06 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	24.6, -48.6
30	06 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	25, -49.6
31	07 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	25.1, -49.8
32	07 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25.1, -50.7
33	07 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25, -51.8
34	07 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.8, -52.5
35	08 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	24.8, -53.2
36	08 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.5, -54.2
37	08 Sep 2018 15:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	24.5, -54.3
38	08 Sep 2018 21:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.6, -54.7
39	09 Sep 2018 03:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.6, -55.2
40	09 Sep 2018 09:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	no people	24.5, -55.8
41	09 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	24.4, -56.3
42	09 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	24.4, -57
43	10 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	24.6, -57.7
44	10 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	24.9, -58.9
45	10 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 3	185	no people	no people	25, -60
46	10 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	25.4, -61.1
47	11 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	25.9, -62.4
48	11 Sep 2018 09:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	26.4, -64.1
49	11 Sep 2018 15:00	Category 4	213	no people	no people	26.7, -65.3
50	11 Sep 2018 21:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	27.5, -67.1
51	12 Sep 2018 03:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	28.4, -68.7
51	12 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 4	231	no people	no people	29.6, -70.8
51	13 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	250	700000 people	no people	31.4, -73.4	United States
51	13 Sep 2018 12:00	Category 4	241	4.5 million people	<1000 people	32.9, -75.5	United States
51	14 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 4	213	11.2 million people	740000 people	33.8, -76.8	United States
51	15 Sep 2018 00:00	Category 2	176	11.2 million people	1 million people	34.3, -78.2	United States
51	16 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical storm	83	7 million people	no people	34.3, -79.7	United States
51	17 Sep 2018 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	34.9, -82.5	United States

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
United States

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population
North Carolina	United States	6.8 million people
South Carolina	United States	3.6 million people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Wilmington	North Carolina	United States	City	75000 people
Florence	South Carolina	United States	City	30000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Bogue Field Mcalf		7	Mil.	Unpaved	No	4000
Triple M		9				0
Whitewood Forest		9				0
Camp Davis Mcolf		18				0
Topsail Airpark		20				0
Pilots Ridge		11				0
Brunswick Media Center		8				0
Brunswick County		7	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4000
New River Mcas		8	Mil.	Paved	Yes	5100
Catino Ranch		15				0
New Hanover County	ILM	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8000
Sky Manor		18				0
Winnabow		10				0
Stag Air Park		7				0
Brickhouse Fld		9				0
The Brunswick Hospital		8				0
Albert J Ellis	OAJ	29	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7100
Ocean Isle		10				0
Sandy Run Acres		18				0
Pettigrew Moore Aerodrome		9				0
Bear Pen		19				0
Henderson Field		12	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3900
Grand Strand	CRE	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5900
Safe Field		15				0
Murphy Farms		24				0
Mitchell Field		7				0
Yonder		11				0
Hardee		14				0
Columbus County Municipal		27	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5500
Twin City		31				0
Loris Community Hospital		28				0
Garland 'brinks'		38				0
Conway Horry County		11	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4400
Elizabethtown		40				0
Bladen County Hospital		37				0
Turbeville		32				0
Twin Oak		38				0
Green Sea		29				0
Bladenboro		35				0
Dublin Field		38				0
Rainbow		18				0
Mynatt Field		27				0
Mc Kee		34				0
Marion County		28	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4500
Lumberton Municipal	LBT	38	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Tailwinds		50				0
Adams		44				0
Dillon County	DLL	41	Civ.	Paved	Yes	3000
Price		42				0
Florence Regional	FLO	45	Civ.	Paved	Yes	6400
Clio Crop Care		40				0
Mack Lamar		52				0
Mc Kay		41				0
Huggins Memorial		44				0
Paul's Plantation		55				0
Branhams		50				0
Marlboro County	BTN	45	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5000
Darlington County		59	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5000
Curry		61				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Cape Lookout		Wake Island
Swansboro		Wake Island
Cape Fear	USCFN	Wake Island
Southport		Wake Island
Wrightsville	USXOG	Wake Island
Wilmington (n.cal)	USILM	Wake Island

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

1.9 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 2.0m in Stacy, United States. This height is estimated for 14 Sep 2018 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (557 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 59 of 14 Sep 2018 03:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

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