Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BERYL-18
in Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique
07 Jul 2018 21 UTC
click on to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS
Impact Single TC
HWRF
ECMWF
GFS
Impact all weather systems in the area
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Impact

Tropical Cyclone BERYL-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS (NOAA)
Exposed countries Guadeloupe, Dominica, Martinique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.1 m (09 Jul 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Guadeloupe)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 83 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
GDACS Overall 157 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

83 km/h Current

Up to 460000 people in Tropical storm (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm 		Population in
Cat. 1 or higher		 Countries
Green 1 05 Jul 2018 15:00 65 No people No people
Green 2 05 Jul 2018 21:00 120 No people No people
Green 3 06 Jul 2018 03:00 120 No people No people
Green 4 06 Jul 2018 09:00 139 590 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe
Green 5 06 Jul 2018 15:00 157 10.7 million 70 thousand Dominica
Green 6 06 Jul 2018 21:00 148 5.8 million 390 thousand Martinique
Green 7 07 Jul 2018 03:00 139 4.9 million 370 thousand Martinique
Green 8 07 Jul 2018 09:00 120 560 thousand No people Saint Lucia, Martinique, Dominica
Green 9 07 Jul 2018 15:00 102 6.2 million No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe, Dominican Republic, Haiti
Green 10 07 Jul 2018 21:00 83 470 thousand No people Martinique, Dominica, Guadeloupe

Bulletin Timeline

Alert N° Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)		 Population in
Tropical Storm		 Population in
Cat.1 or higher		 Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
 1 05 Jul 2018 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 10.2, -41.4
GREEN
 2 05 Jul 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 10.3, -42.8
GREEN
 3 06 Jul 2018 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 10.4, -44
GREEN
 4 06 Jul 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 10.6, -45.1
GREEN
 5 06 Jul 2018 15:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.7, -46.5
GREEN
 6 06 Jul 2018 21:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.6, -47.8
GREEN
 7 07 Jul 2018 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 10.9, -48.9
GREEN
 8 07 Jul 2018 09:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 11.1, -49.8
GREEN
 9 07 Jul 2018 15:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 12.1, -51.1
GREEN
 10 07 Jul 2018 21:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 12.7, -52.7
GREEN
 10 08 Jul 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13.4, -55
GREEN
 10 08 Jul 2018 18:00 Tropical storm 65 460000 people no people 14.6, -58.5 Dominica
GREEN
 10 09 Jul 2018 06:00 Tropical storm 65 41000 people no people 15.9, -62.4 Guadeloupe
GREEN
 10 09 Jul 2018 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 17.3, -66.3 Puerto Rico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.



Exposed population

Countries

Country
Martinique
Dominica
Guadeloupe

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Martinique Martinique 370000 people
Dominica Dominica 70000 people
Guadeloupe Guadeloupe 410000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Roseau Saint George Dominica Capital 16000 people
Capesterre Guadeloupe City -
Pointe-à-Pitre Guadeloupe City -
Saint-Claude Guadeloupe City 10000 people
Basse-Terre Guadeloupe Capital 11000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Melville Hall DOM 24 Civ. Paved Yes 4800
Dominica Cane DCF unknown 0
Canefield 4 Civ. Paved No 2500
Marie Galante GBJ 5 Civ. Paved Yes 4000
Terre de Haut LSS unknown 0
Terre-de-Bas HTB unknown 0
Le Raizet PTP 11 Civ. Paved Yes 11400
Basse-Terre Baillif BBR unknown 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
La Trinite Martinique
Roseau DMRSU Dominica
Grand Bourg Guadeloupe
Saint Louis Guadeloupe
Portsmouth DMPOR Dominica
Bourg Des Saintes Guadeloupe
Pointe-a-Pitre GPPTP Guadeloupe
Basse Terre GPBBR Guadeloupe
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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.1 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.1m in Castle Bruce, Dominica. This height is estimated for 09 Jul 2018 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (9 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 10 of 07 Jul 2018 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Jul 2018 02:00 Castle Bruce Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 02:00 La Plaine Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 03:00 Marigot Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 03:00 Grand-Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 03:00 Capesterre Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 05:00 Basse-Terre Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 04:00 Le Bourg Guadeloupe  0.1
09 Jul 2018 03:00 Portsmouth Dominica  0.1
09 Jul 2018 04:00 Baroui Dominica  0.1