Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ORLENE-22 in Mexico from 29 Sep 2022 03:00 UTC to 02 Oct 2022 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ORLENE-22

in Mexico

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ORLENE-22 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	110 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	213 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (04 Oct 02:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 03 Oct 2022 18:00 - 04 Oct 2022 06:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	194 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	213 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

194 km/h Current Max.

Up to 92000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 03:00	139	930 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	29 Sep 2022 09:00	139	1.8 million	No people	Mexico
3	29 Sep 2022 15:00	120	1.8 million	810 thousand	Mexico
4	29 Sep 2022 21:00	157	2 million	90 thousand	Mexico
5	30 Sep 2022 03:00	157	2.1 million	40 thousand	Mexico
6	30 Sep 2022 09:00	167	710 thousand	3 thousand	Mexico
7	30 Sep 2022 15:00	157	920 thousand	4 thousand	Mexico
8	30 Sep 2022 21:00	130	1 million	250 thousand	Mexico
9	01 Oct 2022 03:00	120	1.8 million	110 thousand	Mexico
10	01 Oct 2022 09:00	148	1.6 million	20 thousand	Mexico
11	01 Oct 2022 15:00	120	1.1 million	110 thousand	Mexico
12	01 Oct 2022 21:00	157	1 million	90 thousand	Mexico
13	02 Oct 2022 00:00	194	1 million	90 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	29 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14.4, -103.7
2	29 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.8, -104.9
3	29 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.1, -105.9
4	29 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.4, -106.5
5	30 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	15.6, -106.7
6	30 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.9, -106.9
7	30 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	16.1, -107.1
8	30 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	16.6, -107.1
9	01 Oct 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	17, -107.2
10	01 Oct 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	17.2, -107
11	01 Oct 2022 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	no people	17.6, -107
12	01 Oct 2022 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	17.9, -107.1
13	02 Oct 2022 00:00	Category 2	167	no people	no people	18.2, -107.1
13	02 Oct 2022 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	18.6, -107
13	02 Oct 2022 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	28000 people	19.7, -106.8
13	03 Oct 2022 06:00	Category 2	167	3300 people	420000 people	20.9, -106.6
13	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Category 1	130	88000 people	930000 people	22.1, -106.2
13	04 Oct 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	710000 people	23.1, -105.8	Mexico
13	04 Oct 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	24.1, -105.2	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Mexico	91000 people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Category 1 or higher strength
Nayarit	Mexico	3300 people
Sinaloa	Mexico	88000 people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Escuinapa	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	28000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Isla Maria Madre		5				0
Rancho los Cabras		3				0

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in La Puerta, Mexico. This height is estimated for 04 Oct 2022 02:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (13 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 13 of 02 Oct 2022 00:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Oct 2022 02:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.5
	03 Oct 2022 21:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.4
	04 Oct 2022 01:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.4
	04 Oct 2022 02:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2022 18:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2022 19:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.4
	03 Oct 2022 20:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.4
	04 Oct 2022 01:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.3
	03 Oct 2022 20:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.3
	04 Oct 2022 02:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 17:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	03 Oct 2022 20:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	04 Oct 2022 03:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.