Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KAY-22 in Mexico from 04 Sep 2022 15:00 UTC to 09 Sep 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KAY-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	167 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (08 Sep 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 08 Sep 2022 15:00 - 08 Sep 2022 21:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	167 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 8.4 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	04 Sep 2022 15:00	157	830 thousand	5 thousand	Mexico
2	04 Sep 2022 21:00	157	870 thousand	6 thousand	Mexico
3	05 Sep 2022 03:00	157	950 thousand	8 thousand	Mexico
4	05 Sep 2022 09:00	167	940 thousand	6 thousand	Mexico
5	05 Sep 2022 15:00	167	850 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	05 Sep 2022 21:00	176	160 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	06 Sep 2022 03:00	176	410 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	06 Sep 2022 09:00	185	820 thousand	No people	Mexico
9	06 Sep 2022 15:00	185	880 thousand	No people	Mexico
10	06 Sep 2022 21:00	176	870 thousand	Few people	Mexico
11	07 Sep 2022 03:00	176	1.6 million	No people	Mexico
12	07 Sep 2022 09:00	167	1.5 million	6 thousand	Mexico
13	07 Sep 2022 15:00	176	5.1 million	6 thousand	Mexico
14	07 Sep 2022 21:00	157	4.2 million	6 thousand	Mexico
15	08 Sep 2022 03:00	148	6.3 million	8 thousand	Mexico
16	08 Sep 2022 09:00	139	5.5 million	8 thousand	Mexico
17	08 Sep 2022 15:00	139	6.1 million	8 thousand	Mexico
18	08 Sep 2022 21:00	120	5.7 million	10 thousand	Mexico
19	09 Sep 2022 03:00	102	3.3 million	10 thousand	Mexico
20	09 Sep 2022 09:00	93	5.2 million	10 thousand	Mexico
21	09 Sep 2022 15:00	83	8.4 million	10 thousand	Mexico
22	09 Sep 2022 21:00	65	8.4 million	10 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	04 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	14, -101.4
2	04 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	14.8, -102.5
3	05 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.6, -103.8
4	05 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.7, -105.3
5	05 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	15.8, -106.4
6	05 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	15.6, -107.3
7	06 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 1	130	no people	no people	16, -108.1
8	06 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	17, -108.9
9	06 Sep 2022 15:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	18, -110
10	06 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 1	139	no people	no people	18.8, -111	Mexico
11	07 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	no people	19.5, -111.7
12	07 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 2	157	no people	380000 people	20.2, -112
13	07 Sep 2022 15:00	Category 2	167	no people	710000 people	21.1, -112.6
14	07 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 2	157	no people	750000 people	22, -113
15	08 Sep 2022 03:00	Category 1	148	no people	830000 people	23.2, -113
16	08 Sep 2022 09:00	Category 1	139	<1000 people	500000 people	24.5, -113.4
17	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Category 1	139	5400 people	420000 people	25.8, -113.8
18	08 Sep 2022 21:00	Category 1	120	7800 people	520000 people	27.1, -114.3	Mexico
19	09 Sep 2022 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	800000 people	28.4, -115
20	09 Sep 2022 09:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	4.2 million people	29.4, -116
21	09 Sep 2022 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	7.3 million people	30.3, -116.7
22	09 Sep 2022 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	<1000 people	31, -118
22	10 Sep 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	31.4, -119.1
22	10 Sep 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	31.5, -120.3
22	11 Sep 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	31.4, -121.2
22	11 Sep 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	30.9, -121.9
22	12 Sep 2022 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	30.1, -121.8
22	12 Sep 2022 18:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	29.2, -121.4

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico
United States

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California	Mexico
California	United States
Sonora	Mexico
Arizona	United States
Baja California Sur	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ensenada	Baja California	Mexico	City	250000 people
Tijuana	Baja California	Mexico	City	1.4 million people
Chula Vista	California	United States	City	170000 people
National City	California	United States	City	54000 people
San Diego	California	United States	Major city	1.2 million people
Spring Valley	California	United States	City	27000 people
La Mesa	California	United States	City	55000 people
El Cajon	California	United States	City	95000 people
Santee	California	United States	City	53000 people
Oceanside	California	United States	City	160000 people
Escondido	California	United States	City	130000 people
Vista	California	United States	City	90000 people
Mexicali	Baja California	Mexico	Major city	600000 people
Isla Natividad	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
San Juanico	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
Guaymas	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people
Villa Constitución	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Ensenada	ESE	15	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4800
Imperial Beach Olf Ream Field	NRS	7	Mil.	Paved	No	5000
Gen A L Rodriguez International	TIJ	152	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9700
Parking Lot		unknown				0
Brown Field Municipal	SDM	160	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7900
San Quintin	SNQ	unknown				0
Sharp Chula Vista Medical Center		136				0
Turner Field/amphibious Base		unknown				0
North Island NAS Halsey Field	NZY	8	Mil.	Paved	Yes	8000
Paradise Valley Hospital		35				0
San Diego International Lindbergh Fl	SAN	5	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9400
U S Naval Hospital San Diego		61				0
KGTV-10 Parking Lot		61				0
John Nichol's Field		149				0
Mercy Hospital & Medical Center		101				0
Montgomery Field	MYF	129	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4600
Grossmont Hospital		193				0
Miramar NAS	NKX	146	Mil.	Paved	Yes	12000
Reider Ranch		809				0
Torrey Pines Corporate Helistop		131				0
Gillespie Field	SEE	117	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5300
Scripps Hospital East County		180				0
On The Rocks		808				0
Pomerado Hospital		198				0
McClellan Palomar	CLD	100	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4900
Ramona		425	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4000
Jacumba		860				0
Pat Coyle Memorial		183				0
Tri-city Hospital		79				0
Oceanside Municipal	OCN	9				0
Flying T Ranch		762				0
Lake Wohlford Resort		501				0
Blackinton		352				0
Rancho Vallecito		512				0
Hoffman (Private)		945				0
Hoag		503				0
Loma Madera Ranch		1029				0
Agua Caliente Springs		372				0
Emory Ranch		146				0
Hunt's Sky Ranch		704				0
Warner Springs Gliderport		879				0
Landells		287				0
Borrego Air Ranch		175				0
Johnson Brothers		0				0
Borrego Valley	BXS	158				0
Ocotillo		49				0
El Centro Naf	NJK	-13	Mil.	Paved	Yes	9500
Calexico International	CXL	1	Civ.	Paved	No	4500
San Felipe New	SFH	45	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Imperial County	IPL	-17	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5300
Douthitt Strip		14				0
Pioneers Memorial Hospital		-30				0
Mexicali	MXL	22	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8500
Brawley Municipal	BWC	-39	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4400
Holtville		18				0
Rancho Santa Ynez		610				0
San Luis Rio Colorado	UAC	15				0
Rancho Santa Ynes		671				0
Rolle Airfield		50				0
Checkerboard		59				0
Somerton		54				0
Yuma Regional Medical Center		61				0
Yuma Mcas Yuma International	YUM	65	Civ.	Paved	Yes	13300
Isla Cedros		30				0
Punta Penasco	PPE	9	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Bahia Tortugas		40				0
Bahia de los Angeles North	BHL	5				0
Guerrero Negro		18				0
Guerrero Negro	GUB	18				0
Puerto Libertad North		5				0
Bahia Kino North		6				0
Abreojos	AJS	unknown				0
San Ignacio 1	SGM	244				0
Santa Rosalia	SRL	unknown				0
Punta Chivato Bulge		2				0
Punta Chivato	PCV	unknown				0
Mulege	MUG	61				0
General Jose Maria Yanez International	GYM	27	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7700
Loreto	LTO	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7200
Villa Constitucion	VIB	43				0
Arroyo Capo		20				0
La Paz		26				0
Leon	LAP	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
Punta Pescadero		7				0
Punta Colorada	PCO	unknown				0
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Cabo San Lucas		139				0
Isla Socorro		100				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Ensenada	MXESE	Mexico
Rosarito Terminal	MXRST	Mexico
Tijuana	MXTIJ	Mexico
San Diego	USSAN	Wake Island
San Quintin		Mexico
San Clemente	USXMO	Wake Island
San Clemente Island		Wake Island
El Capitan	USELC	Wake Island
Guadalupe Island		Mexico
Oceanside	USXJX	Wake Island
San Felipe		Mexico
Punta Penasco		Mexico
Morro Redondo	MXMRE	Mexico
Puerto San Bartolome		Mexico
Prt Venustiano Carranza		Mexico
Tiburon Island		Mexico
Santa Rosalia	MXSRL	Mexico
San Marcos Island	MXSMI	Mexico
Muleje		Mexico
Guaymas	MXGYM	Mexico
Empalme		Mexico
Loreto		Mexico
Bahia Salinas		Mexico
San Carlos	MXSCR	Mexico
Puerto Madalena		Mexico
San Juan de la Costa	MXSJC	Mexico
La Paz		Mexico
Buenavista		Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico
Clarion Island		Mexico
Roca Partido Island		Mexico
Socorro Island		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Abelardo	Tijuana	1937
	Carrizo	Carrizo	1981
Lower Otay Reservoir	Savage	Otay River	1919
	Sweetwater Main	Sweetwater River	1888
	Barrett	Cottonwood Creek	1922
	Lake Loveland	Sweetwater River	1945
Lake Jennings	Chet Harritt	Quail Can Creek	1962
	Morena	Cottonwood Creek	1912
	San Vicente	San Vicente Creek	1943
	El Capitan	San Diego River	1934
	Lake Hodges	San Dieguito River	1918
	Ramona	Green Val Road Creek	1988
	Cuyamaca	Boulder Creek	1887
	Sutherland	Santa Ysabel Creek	1954
Lake Henshaw	Henshaw	San Luis Rey River	1923

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Puerto Magdalena, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Sep 2022 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (73 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 04 Sep 2022 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.5
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.4
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Rancho Datilari	Mexico	0.4
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Quinones	Mexico	0.4
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Rancho Conejo	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	El Tomale	Mexico	0.3
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	La Florida	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Adolfo Lopez Mateos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 10:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 05:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 07:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 05:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 09:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 11:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 11:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 11:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 12:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 13:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 14:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Puertecitos	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Queretaro	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 08:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 10:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	08 Sep 2022 15:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1