Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KAY-22
in Mexico
08 Sep 2022 21 UTC
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  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
  • GFS
  • HWRF
  • ECMWF
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone KAY-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 167 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (08 Sep 15:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    08 Sep 2022 15:00 - 08 Sep 2022 21:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 120 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 167 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      120 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 9800 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 04 Sep 2022 15:00 157 830 thousand 5 thousand Mexico
        Green 2 04 Sep 2022 21:00 157 870 thousand 6 thousand Mexico
        Green 3 05 Sep 2022 03:00 157 950 thousand 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 4 05 Sep 2022 09:00 167 940 thousand 6 thousand Mexico
        Green 5 05 Sep 2022 15:00 167 850 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 6 05 Sep 2022 21:00 176 160 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 7 06 Sep 2022 03:00 176 410 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 8 06 Sep 2022 09:00 185 820 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 9 06 Sep 2022 15:00 185 880 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 10 06 Sep 2022 21:00 176 870 thousand Few people Mexico
        Green 11 07 Sep 2022 03:00 176 1.6 million No people Mexico
        Green 12 07 Sep 2022 09:00 167 1.5 million 6 thousand Mexico
        Green 13 07 Sep 2022 15:00 176 5.1 million 6 thousand Mexico
        Green 14 07 Sep 2022 21:00 157 4.2 million 6 thousand Mexico
        Green 15 08 Sep 2022 03:00 148 6.3 million 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 16 08 Sep 2022 09:00 139 5.5 million 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 17 08 Sep 2022 15:00 139 6.1 million 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 18 08 Sep 2022 21:00 120 5.7 million 10 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 04 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 14, -101.4
          GREEN
          		 2 04 Sep 2022 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 14.8, -102.5
          GREEN
          		 3 05 Sep 2022 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 15.6, -103.8
          GREEN
          		 4 05 Sep 2022 09:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.7, -105.3
          GREEN
          		 5 05 Sep 2022 15:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 15.8, -106.4
          GREEN
          		 6 05 Sep 2022 21:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 15.6, -107.3
          GREEN
          		 7 06 Sep 2022 03:00 Category 1 130 no people no people 16, -108.1
          GREEN
          		 8 06 Sep 2022 09:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 17, -108.9
          GREEN
          		 9 06 Sep 2022 15:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 18, -110
          GREEN
          		 10 06 Sep 2022 21:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 18.8, -111 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 11 07 Sep 2022 03:00 Category 1 148 no people no people 19.5, -111.7
          GREEN
          		 12 07 Sep 2022 09:00 Category 2 157 no people 380000 people 20.2, -112
          GREEN
          		 13 07 Sep 2022 15:00 Category 2 167 no people 710000 people 21.1, -112.6
          GREEN
          		 14 07 Sep 2022 21:00 Category 2 157 no people 750000 people 22, -113
          GREEN
          		 15 08 Sep 2022 03:00 Category 1 148 no people 830000 people 23.2, -113
          GREEN
          		 16 08 Sep 2022 09:00 Category 1 139 <1000 people 500000 people 24.5, -113.4
          GREEN
          		 17 08 Sep 2022 15:00 Category 1 139 5400 people 420000 people 25.8, -113.8
          GREEN
          		 18 08 Sep 2022 21:00 Category 1 120 7800 people 520000 people 27.1, -114.3 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 18 09 Sep 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 4.7 million people 28.7, -115.4
          GREEN
          		 18 09 Sep 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 4.6 million people 30.4, -116.9
          GREEN
          		 18 10 Sep 2022 06:00 Tropical storm 74 no people <1000 people 31.3, -118.4
          GREEN
          		 18 10 Sep 2022 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 31.7, -119.6
          GREEN
          		 18 11 Sep 2022 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 31.7, -120.5
          GREEN
          		 18 11 Sep 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 31, -121.5
          GREEN
          		 18 12 Sep 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 29.5, -121
          GREEN
          		 18 13 Sep 2022 18:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 28.5, -120
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Baja California Sur Mexico
          Baja California Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Isla Natividad Baja California Sur Mexico City -

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Abreojos AJS unknown 0
          Bahia Tortugas 40 0
          Isla Cedros 30 0
          Isla Socorro 100 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Puerto San Bartolome Mexico
          Morro Redondo MXMRE Mexico
          Socorro Island Mexico
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.5 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Puerto Magdalena, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Sep 2022 15:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (73 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 04 Sep 2022 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.5
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.4
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.4
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 Quinones Mexico  0.4
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.3
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.3
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.3
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.3
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.3
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.3
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.3
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Cunano Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Mulege Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 10:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 08:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 08:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 05:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 07:00 El Tule Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 05:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 08:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 09:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 11:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 11:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 11:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 12:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 13:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 14:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 El Barril Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 08:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 08:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 10:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
          08 Sep 2022 15:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1