Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for JASMINE-22 in Madagascar from 24 Apr 2022 00:00 UTC to 26 Apr 2022 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JASMINE-22

in Madagascar

26 Apr 2022 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Beta version

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone JASMINE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	102 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (24 Apr 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 26 Apr 2022 12:00 - 27 Apr 2022 00:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	102 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	24 Apr 2022 00:00	74	No people	No people
2	24 Apr 2022 06:00	74	No people	No people
3	24 Apr 2022 18:00	93	No people	No people
4	25 Apr 2022 06:00	83	680 thousand	No people	Madagascar
5	25 Apr 2022 12:00	102	570 thousand	No people	Madagascar
6	25 Apr 2022 18:00	93	1 million	No people	Madagascar
7	26 Apr 2022 00:00	102	830 thousand	No people	Madagascar
8	26 Apr 2022 06:00	102	680 thousand	No people	Madagascar
9	26 Apr 2022 12:00	93	1.7 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	24 Apr 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	-17.5, 40.3
2	24 Apr 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-17.9, 39.4
3	24 Apr 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-19.2, 39.5
4	25 Apr 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	-20.4, 40.3
5	25 Apr 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-21.1, 40.8
6	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-22.2, 41.3
7	26 Apr 2022 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	340000 people	-22.6, 41.5
8	26 Apr 2022 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	680000 people	-23.1, 42.3
9	26 Apr 2022 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.7 million people	-23.3, 43.3
9	27 Apr 2022 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-23.8, 46	Madagascar
9	27 Apr 2022 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.4, 48.8
9	28 Apr 2022 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	-21.8, 50.9

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Madagascar

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Toliara	Madagascar
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Tulear	Toliara	Madagascar	Major city	-
Ankazoabo	Toliara	Madagascar	City	26000 people
Betroka	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Toliara	TLE	8	Civ.	Paved	No	6500
Betioky	BKU	unknown				0
Ankazoabo	WAK	430	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Bekily	OVA	387	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4100

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Toliara	MGTLE	Madagascar
Manombo	MGMOB	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Damiao, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 24 Apr 2022 08:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (120 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 24 Apr 2022 06:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.6
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.6
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.6
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.6
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.5
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.5
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.5
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.4
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.4
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.4
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.4
	24 Apr 2022 09:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.4
	25 Apr 2022 17:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 11:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 11:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 11:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 15:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 15:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 15:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 15:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 15:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.3
	24 Apr 2022 15:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.3
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 12:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 12:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 12:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 12:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 12:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Morrua	Mozambique	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Chululu	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Caramaca	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Pebane	Mozambique	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ampapamena	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Moebase	Mozambique	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Metapa	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Murrumuana	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 11:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Majunga	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Carramali	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Mutadua	Mozambique	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 08:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	24 Apr 2022 11:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 04:00	Bajone	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 03:00	Mocareja	Mozambique	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 02:00	Napito	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 21:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 07:00	Chiloane	Mozambique	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 21:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 20:00	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 20:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 03:00	Larde	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 02:00	Namorre	Mozambique	0.1
	24 Apr 2022 03:00	Coropoa	Mozambique	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 19:00	Afo	Mozambique	0.1
	25 Apr 2022 18:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.