Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: FL-2021-000166-VNM
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 167 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (25 Oct 17:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
25 Oct 2021 06:00 - 25 Oct 2021 18:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 120 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 167 km/h 0.2 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to 2.8 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 139 2 million 560 thousand Mexico
Orange 2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 120 9 million 2.8 million Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -100.5
GREEN
2 22 Oct 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.1, -101
GREEN
2 23 Oct 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 13.7, -101.4
GREEN
2 23 Oct 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 no people no people 14.6, -102
GREEN
2 24 Oct 2021 06:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.3, -102.3
GREEN
2 24 Oct 2021 18:00 Category 1 148 220000 people no people 16.1, -102.6
GREEN
2 25 Oct 2021 06:00 Category 1 139 990000 people 14000 people 17.1, -103
ORANGE
2 25 Oct 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 8.9 million people 2.8 million people 18.3, -103.3 Mexico
GREEN
2 26 Oct 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 23.2, -103.9 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Michoacan Mexico 3.9 million people
Colima Mexico 470000 people
Jalisco Mexico 5.8 million people
Zacatecas Mexico 1.4 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Coalcomán Michoacán de Ocampo Mexico City 10000 people
Tecalitlán Jalisco Mexico City 13000 people
Tamazula de Gordiano Jalisco Mexico City -
Ciudad Guzmán Jalisco Mexico City -
Sayula Jalisco Mexico City 25000 people
Atoyac Jalisco Mexico City 5300 people
Zacoalco de Torres Jalisco Mexico City -
Amatitán Jalisco Mexico City 9400 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Colima CLQ 723 Civ. Paved Yes 7500
Tuxpan 1225 Mil. Paved No 6700
Ciudad Guzman 1520 0
Zapopan ZAP 1625 0

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Trojes Coahuayana 1994

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Maruata, Mexico. This height is estimated for 25 Oct 2021 17:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (7 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 2 of 22 Oct 2021 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
25 Oct 2021 17:00 Maruata Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 17:00 Bucerias Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2021 09:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 13:00 Calla de Campos Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2021 09:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 13:00 Chula Mexico  0.1
25 Oct 2021 16:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1