Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: FL-2021-000166-VNM
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 740 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 167 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (26 Oct 01:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
25 Oct 2021 12:00 - 26 Oct 2021 12:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GDACS Current 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
GDACS Overall 167 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 560000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Orange 1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 139 2 million 560 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 22 Oct 2021 15:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12.7, -100.5
GREEN
1 23 Oct 2021 00:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 13, -101.3
GREEN
1 23 Oct 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 93 no people no people 13.9, -101.9
GREEN
1 24 Oct 2021 00:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 14.6, -102.3
GREEN
1 24 Oct 2021 12:00 Category 1 139 no people no people 15.3, -102.7
GREEN
1 25 Oct 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 20000 people no people 16.2, -103.1
ORANGE
1 25 Oct 2021 12:00 Category 1 139 1.3 million people 560000 people 17.3, -103.5
GREEN
1 26 Oct 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 65 1 million people no people 19.8, -104 Mexico
GREEN
1 27 Oct 2021 12:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 22, -104.3 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Michoacan Mexico 3.8 million people
Jalisco Mexico 5.7 million people
Colima Mexico 460000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Tecomán Colima Mexico City 75000 people
Armería Colima Mexico City 15000 people
Colima Colima Mexico Major city 120000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Coahuayana 61 0

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Basilio Vadillo Basilio Vadillo San Migue 1973

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Apisa, Mexico. This height is estimated for 26 Oct 2021 01:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (10 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 1 of 22 Oct 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
26 Oct 2021 01:00 Apisa Mexico  0.3
26 Oct 2021 02:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 19:00 Maruata Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 23:00 San Telmo Mexico  0.2
26 Oct 2021 00:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2021 04:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2021 04:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
25 Oct 2021 21:00 Bucerias Mexico  0.1
26 Oct 2021 03:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2021 02:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1